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  3. Global financial stability has improved over the past six months, bolstered by better macroeco-nomic performance and continued a

Global financial stability has improved over the past six months, bolstered by better macroeco-nomic performance and continued a

admin2019-03-20  82
问题     Global financial stability has improved over the past six months, bolstered by better macroeco-nomic performance and continued accommodative macroeconomic policies, but fragilities remain. The two-speed recovery—modest in advanced economies and robust in emerging market economies—has posed different policy challenges for countries. In advanced economies hit hardest by the crisis, governments and households remain heavily indebted, to varying degrees, and the health of financial institutions has not recovered in tandem with the overall economy. Emerging market economies are facing new challenges associated with strong domestic demand, rapid credit growth, relatively accommodative macroeconomic policies, and large capital inflows. Geopolitical risks could also threaten the economic and financial outlook, with oil prices increasing sharply amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa.
    The main task facing policymakers in advanced economies is to shift the balance of policies a-way from reliance on macroeconomic and liquidity support to more structural policies—less "leaning" and more "cleaning" of the financial system. This will entail reducing leverage and restoring market discipline, while avoiding financial or economic disruption during the transition. Thus, ongoing policy efforts to withdraw (implicit) public guarantees and ensure bondholder liability for future losses must build on more rapid progress toward stronger bank balance sheets, ensuring medium-term fiscal sustainability and addressing excessive debt burdens in the private sector.
    For policymakers in emerging market economies, the task is to limit overheating and a buildup of vulnerabilities—to avoid "cleaning" later. Emerging market economies have continued to benefit from strong growth relative to that in advanced economies, accompanied by increasing portfolio capital inflows. This is putting pressure on some financial markets, contributing to higher leverage, potential asset price bubbles, and inflationary pressures. Policymakers will have to pay increasing attention to containing the buildup of macro-financial risks to avoid future problems that could inhibit their growth and damage financial stability. In a number of cases, this will entail a tighter macroeconomic policy stance, and, when needed, the use of macro-prudential tools to ensure financial stability. Increasing the financial sector’s capacity to absorb higher flows through efforts to broaden and deepen local capital markets will also help.
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答案 六个月来，在宏观经济业绩改善和宏观经济政策持续宽松的支持下，全球金融稳定形势有所好转，但脆弱性仍然存在。“双速”复苏(先进经济体较慢，新兴市场经济体强劲)给各国带来了不同的政策挑战。在受危机影响最严重的先进经济体，政府和家庭不同程度地面临债务过高的问题，金融机构未能随总体经济的复苏而恢复健康。新兴市场经济体正面临各种新挑战，这些挑战与国内需求强劲、信贷增长迅速、宏观经济政策相对宽松以及大量资本流人等因素有关。鉴于人们担心中东和北非的石油供应减少，油价日渐攀升，因此地缘政治风险也可能威胁到经济和金融前景。 先进经济体决策者面临的主要任务是将政策重心从依赖宏观经济和流动性支持转向更多地依赖结构性政策，即减少“依赖”和增加对金融体系的“清理”。这要求降低杠杆率和恢复市场纪律，同时避免在过渡期间发生金融和经济混乱。因此，为促进当前旨在撤消政府(隐性)担保、确保债券持有人对未来损失承担责任的政策努力，首先必须迅速恢复银行资产负债表的健康，保障中期财政的可持续性，并解决私人部门债务负担过重的问题。 对新兴市场经济体决策者而言，任务是限制经济过热和脆弱性积累，以避免以后的“清理”。新兴市场经济体的增长继续强于先进经济体，证券资本流入量增加。这种状况给一些金融市场带来压力，使杠杆率升高，形成潜在的资产价格泡沫，并导致通货膨胀压力增大。决策者还须集中更多注意力来控制宏观金融风险的积累，以避免未来发生可能阻碍增长和破坏金融稳定的问题。为此，一些新兴市场国家需要收紧宏观经济政策，并视需要采用宏观审慎工具以确保金融稳定。努力拓宽和深化本国资本市场，以此提高金融部门吸收更多资本流入的能力，也会有所助益。
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