2. 考研
  3. Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa

Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa

admin2013-01-28  111
问题     Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Party and White-hall has believed a Treasury forecast. Anyone with half an eye on the unemployment figures or with a mortgage knew that Chancellor Norman Lamont’s repeated claims about recovery being "just around the corner" were untrue.
    Yet only a fortnight ago Gary Becker, an American economist, won a Nobel prize for his work on using economics to explain aspects of human behavior, such as drug addiction and crime. So why do e-conomists using Britain’s longest running predictive model still have trouble forecasting whether people will spend more or less money in the shops in the next three months? The answer is that they are caught in a race they cannot win, where however fast they try to keep their predictive equations abreast (not behind) of changing patterns in production and spending, peoples’ behavior changes faster.
    Some people claim economics and econometrics should be expelled from the broad scientific church. But that would be foolish. Their present weakness is that they are only perfect when dealing with theory. Use them to make real-world forecasts and things go wrong-principally the answers. But that is typical of a young science. Until the 1930s, only economists were interested in accurately predicting the economic behavior of large numbers of people. The Depression made it a matter of wider interest and urgency. The emergence then of national income statistics helped economics and econometrics to develop. But the art in using both still lies in knowing, when you are crossing the line between prediction and guesswork.
    The government seems not to recognize this. Of late it has pushed and pulled the levers of money supply, tax and interest rates like children let loose on the bridge of a ship. And politicians such as Lamont also have a hand in Treasury forecasts.
    "That is the worst way to use a science" , says Becker. "If economics has any claim to be a science and to belong to the Nobel award structure—and I firmly believe that it does—then economists should avoid political propaganda and convey to the public some flavor of the scientific quality of economics. The government should stop interfering and let its specialists apply their programs, which embody years of experience, as tools to solve the problem of how to make the economy healthy".  
It is believed somehow that economics and econometrics ______.
选项 A、play an important role in economic development
B、will be very useful in the church work
C、are perfect in dealing with scientific experiments
D、can hardly solve economic problems in real life
答案D
解析 细节题。题干中的“economics and econometrics”出自文章第三段。第三段提到：经济学和计量经济学的缺陷是它们只有在涉及理论时才完美，利用它们去对真实的世界进行预测就会出错。D符合题意，为正确选项。A与此意相反；B和C属于not given类型。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/M7p4777K
0

考研英语一

相关试题推荐
随机试题
最新回复(0)