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  3. Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven

Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven

admin2009-05-09  33
问题     Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.
    To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey — in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 — giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.
    Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10-to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.
    The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.
    Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.
    For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when (or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually " emerged. "
Market researchers focus on the technologies that will emerge in
选项 A、5-10 years.
B、10-20 years.
C、20 -30 years.
D、30 -40 years.
答案A
解析 该题为细节加推理题。从第三段第二句“Forecasts of the next five to 10 years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research…”可以看出，对未来五至十年的预测属于市场调查的范畴，由此可以推断市场调查人员会将注意力集中于未来五至十年将要出现的科技上面，故选A。
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