首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Four Dangers to the Euro Operating a single currency is not going to be easy. European economic and monetary union will not
Four Dangers to the Euro Operating a single currency is not going to be easy. European economic and monetary union will not
admin
2012-11-22
69
问题
Four Dangers to the Euro
Operating a single currency is not going to be easy. European economic and monetary union will not function without any difficulties. Indeed, signs of stress have already appeared. And these political, economic and social pressures will almost certainly intensify in the years to come. But EMU (经济贷币联盟) failure is a topic generally avoided in continental Europe. And for good reason the collapse of monetary union would almost certainly slam the European Union into political chaos and the world into financial crisis. "It would be almost as bad as a war in Europe," says Use Angenentdt, chief economist at BHF Bank in Frankfurt. The optimists contend EMU failure is not possible. They insist that the politicians will in Europe for monetary union be simply too strong to allow it to fail. But they overlook a simple fact: European politicians invented monetary union, and therefore they can destroy it. Some think the chances of EMU disintegration are highest before Euro notes and coins go into circulation Jan. 1, 2002. Others say, no, it would take more time for pressures to reach the explosive levels necessary to burst apart EMU. Whoever is right, here are a few of EMU’ s weak points.
One Size Does Not Fit All
The prime requirement for EMU (one key interest rate for all 11 nations regardless of divergent economic cycles) is potentially its most dangerous fault line. The European Central Bank has said it will set its key interest rate at a level for average Euroland economic conditions.
You don’ t have to be a chief economist to figure out that the fight key interest rate for the majority of Euroland, expected to grow at just over 2 percent next year, will not be right for Ireland, seen growing nearly 7 percent. The only way for Ireland to adjust would be through tough fiscal (财政的) tightening. An even bigger problem will come when most of Euroland is humming along with solid growth, but, say, Ireland and Portugal are sliding into recession after their booms have gone bust. The two nations would suffocate under the key interest rate and would not be able to devalue currencies as in the past. Fiscal stimulus also would be tricky because of the treaty that penalized countries who let their deficits(赤字) balloon.
Money to Burn
Another big fear is that Euroland nations, after years of fiscal penny saving to gain entry into EMU, will now go on wild spending. Some economists maintain that if only one or two nations overspend, peer pressure would quickly force them back to fiscal responsibility. The worst case would, be deficit spending by a majority of Euroland nations. And chances of this happening have grown after left-wing electoral victories in Germany and Italy, whose governments are now mare in line with the socialist government of France.
Many Germans did not want the Club Mediterranean nations of Italy, Portugal and Spain to be allowed into club Euro. The fear of Italy, with its large economy and history of huge deficits and political instability, was especially intense.
Adolf Rosenstock, economist at Nomura International in Frankfurt, thinks Italy could be the first nation to test EMU cohesiveness. "And this test might come sooner than we think. ", he warns.
The Politicians vs. the Bankers
While plenty of fault lines exist between nations, one huge crack is opening up between elected politicians and the bankers at ECB. Bad blood has already arisen between politicians and Euro central bankers. In response to the politicians’ demands for rate cuts, central bankers have (in essence) told them to keep quiet and work instead of cutting structural deficits and reforming labor markets. Gabriel Stein, senior international economist at Lombard Street Research in London, says that a tight ECB monetary policy might prompt politicians to turn to deficit spending in order to court the voters. This could tm into a bad cycle, with central bankers revenging by raising rates. "The politician might eventually say, ’We can’t work these guys, ’" Stein says. "Yes, the ECB is independent. But ultimate power rests with the politicians, who could control in an independent ECB with one flick of a revised Maastricht Treaty."
Germany Renounces the Faith
Political critics often worry about the Club Med nations such as Italy leaving the Eurozones. But it’ s not incredible that a rich country might choose to leave. Take Germany. True, discontent among the German people over EMU would have to be overwhelming to persuade the country’ s leaders to opt out of the Euro. Being part of the single currency is at the very center of Franco-German efforts to keep the postwar agreement in place after Germany’s reunification. However, remember that Germany is giving up the mighty Deutsche Mark for EMU, and thus, arguably, has the most to lose. if the Euro turns out to be weak and budget deficits excessive, expect the Germans, still haunted by post-and inter-war crises, to start worrying about whether they should ever have joined EMU in the first place. And coming from the opposite viewpoint, some think Germany, despite its economic power, will find it more difficult to adapt to EMU than the Club Med nations. Per Hviid, deputy chief economist at Den Danske Bank in Copenhagen, says Germany’ s highly regulated and expensive labor market, high tax rates and generous spending programs will be trembling hard by EMU. "Of the EMU nations, Germany’s economy probably has the most structural problems," he says. Either way, Germany is the weather vane (风向标)to watch. And if it starts to swing against the Euro, for whatever mason, expect a stoma to follow.
The key interest rate for all eleven nations is set in line with the economic conditions of some less developed ones.
选项
A、Y
B、N
C、NG
答案
B
解析
在One Size Does Not Fit All第一个小标题下第一段的第二句话中,介绍说单一的基准利率是基于欧元国的平均经济水平来确定的。并非本题所述按照较不发达国家的经济水平确定。本题表述错误。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/Snw7777K
0
大学英语四级
相关试题推荐
Thefamilytodayisnolongertheunitofeconomicproductionthatitoncewas.Whenoursocietywaspredominantlyrural,bothh
A、Becauseapolice-carfollowedhis.B、Becausehewantedthemaninhiscararrested.C、Becauseitgrewdarkeranddarker.D、Bec
ComputerCrimeAcomputercrimeisgenerallydefinedasonethatinvolvestheuseofcomputersandsoftwareforillegalpurp
WhatmadeJoanRyandecidetobeasportswriter?"Tenyearsago,IwaseditingnewsstoriesattheOrlandoSentinelinFlorida-
Althoughonlyof______intelligence,thisyoungmanspeaksthreelanguagesfluently.
Whoeverhasskillsshouldbeproperlytreatedandrewarded______hiseducationalbackground.
TheHumanBrainThebrainisthemostcomplexorganinhumanbody.Itproducesoureverythought,action,memory,feelingan
Withtheworld’spopulationestimatedtogrowfromsixtoninebillionby2050,researchers,businessesandgovernmentsarealre
Atsometimeinyourlifeyoumayhaveastrongdesiretodosomethingstrangeorterrible.【C1】______,chancesarethatyoudon
Atsometimeinyourlifeyoumayhaveastrongdesiretodosomethingstrangeorterrible.【C1】______,chancesarethatyoudon
随机试题
慢性肺心病应用强心剂的指征是
关于儿童慢性腮腺炎的涎腺造影表现,哪种说法是错误的
A.体内吸收B.体内分布C.肝脏代谢D.肾脏排泄E.肠道排泄联合用药罗红霉素主要干扰辛伐他汀的()。
阅读以下文言文,回答41-42题。王右军(羲之)年减(不及)十岁时,大将军甚爱之,恒置帐中眠。大将军尝先出,右军犹未起。须臾,钱凤入,屏人论事,都忘右军在帐中,便言逆节之谋。右军觉,既闻所论,知无活理,乃剔吐污头面被褥,诈孰眠。敦论事造半,方意右军
如图所示,一个轴截面为正三角形的圆锥体中内接了一个球体,则这个球的体积是圆锥体积的()。
社会主义法制()。
在国际大赛中,即使是优秀的运动员,也有人不必然不失误,当然,并非所有的优秀运动员都可能失误。以下哪项与上述意思最为接近?
A local-area network(LAN)is a communications network that(125)a variety of devices and provides a(126)for information exchange a
加快Catalyst3548发生直接链路失效时的收敛速度,正确配置生成树可选功能的命令是()。
They______livinginthecityandwanttomovetothecountryforachange.
最新回复
(
0
)