首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven
Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven
admin
2009-05-09
84
问题
Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.
To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey — in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 — giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.
Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10-to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.
The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.
Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.
For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when (or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually " emerged. "
Various research methods are employed in order to
选项
A、reach a consensus of opinions.
B、provide immediate feedback.
C、increase the accuracy of predictions.
D、select crucial technologies.
答案
C
解析
该题为细节题。从第五段第二句“By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach,the Forecast can produce more reliable,useful estimates.”可以看出,通过使用多种方式,而不是依赖单一方式,乔治·华盛顿大学新兴科技预测机构能够做出更加可靠、有效的评估,由此可知,使用多种预测方式是为了提高预测的准确性,故选C。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/WfPd777K
本试题收录于:
公共英语四级笔试题库公共英语(PETS)分类
0
公共英语四级笔试
公共英语(PETS)
相关试题推荐
Somemoderncitiesareusuallyfamousforpeoplewholiveaverylongtime.
Somemoderncitiesareusuallyfamousforpeoplewholiveaverylongtime.
Somemoderncitiesareusuallyfamousforpeoplewholiveaverylongtime.
Periodicallyinhistory,therecomeperiodsofgreattransitioninwhichworkchangesitsmeaning.Therewasatime,perhaps10,
Somechoicesmayberequiredmorethanonce.SectionAChangecanbeablessingoracurse,dependingonyourperspecti
Somechoicesmayberequiredmorethanonce.SectionAChangecanbeablessingoracurse,dependingonyourperspecti
Besidesthefunctionsasavitalentertainmentmedium,whatelsecanpeopleuseaTVas?
Besidesthefunctionsasavitalentertainmentmedium,whatelsecanpeopleuseaTVas?
Besidesthefunctionsasavitalentertainmentmedium,whatelsecanpeopleuseaTVas?
Forthefirsttime,scientistshaveprofiledspecificgeneticchangesduringtheagingofexperimentalanimals,adiscoverythat
随机试题
Wordslike"bear,nut,knockout"canbecategorizedas_____.()
Whenwetalkaboutintelligence,wedonotmeantheabilitytogetagoodscoreonacertaintest,oreventheabilitytodogen
患右心功能不全的患者,出现比较早的症状是
预防风湿热复发的首选药物为()
1周岁小儿的体重约为出生体重的
动物是否有权利不在于它们能否推理,也不是它们能否说话,而是它们能否感到受苦。我们踢了一下石头,说这样做不符合石头的利益,这样说没有意义,因为石头没有受苦的能力。但动物不一样。你踢一下猫,它叫一声跑开了,我们知道它受苦了。大家可以看到一些现象,就是猫、狗等动
《中共中央、国务院关于加快水利改革发展的决定》提出,提高防汛抗旱应急能力,应建立专业化与()相结合的应急抢险救援队伍。
H公司是东北一家民营企业,1996年创建时仅有50万元资金和5个员工。近年来市场对其产品需求不断升温,吸引了数十家企业进入该地区。该企业产品在市场有一定的竞争能力,企业经济效益也不错。公司规模不断扩大,部门增加到十个,人员发展到150多。创办人自任总经理,
材料:天坛之美始建于明永乐十八年的天坛,是世界建筑艺术的珍品。它具有一种独特的意境,它以凝练的艺术形式表现了博大深邃的精神内涵,体现了中国古人对宇宙的思考和想
在教师职业道德上,我们应该大力肯定和倡导的是()。
最新回复
(
0
)