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  3. When oil sells at high market prices, the world’s leading oil consumers, the United States, Japan and the European Union(EU), wi

When oil sells at high market prices, the world’s leading oil consumers, the United States, Japan and the European Union(EU), wi

admin2013-07-02  28
问题     When oil sells at high market prices, the world’s leading oil consumers, the United States, Japan and the European Union(EU), will confront bigger difficulties in concluding their domestic economic policies. Oil enterprises will face rising production costs and falling revenues. Expensive oil will compel the United States and Japan to increase federal interest rates, while making it harder for the European Central Bank(ECB) to lower its rates to simulate its economy. The U. S. trade imbalance is more severe, peaking at $ 46 billion last March. Soaring oil prices have contributed to this result. As for the growing markets in Asia, including China, higher oil prices raise import costs, drive consumer price hikes and increase inflation pressure. According to the estimation of the International Energy Agency, if the price of oil increases by $ 10 per barrel within a year, the Asian economic growth rate will drop 0. 8 percentage points. Sometime this year, China is expected to replace Japan as the world’s second largest oil importer, after the United States. In 2005, China’s oil imports are expected to reach 100 million tons. Since China’s oil purchases are primarily spot transactions, a hike in oil prices will have an exaggerated effect on its economy and people’s consuming habits.

    Despite these ill effects, the overall global economic recovery will not be reversed. The current flux of oil prices began in January 2002, yet it did not prevent the economies of the United States, Japan and the EU from pushing ahead since late 2003. A brisk increase of oil prices actually indicates, to some degree, that economic recovery spurs oil demand, though oil production has not been exceeded by demand in the international market. Aside from the impact of a cut in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)and the tense situation in the Middle East, it has been the speculations of major international oil companies that have largely contributed to the spike in oil prices.
    This will have limited effect on economic growth of the countries that are driven by sectors, such as the hi-tech and service industries. Impact will be severer in newer markets, whose economies rely more on manufacturing and are less dynamic. In fact, economic growth for the least developed countries could fall 2 percentage points. The IMF predicted that the three major economies of the United States, Japan and the EU would enjoy economic growth at 4. 6 percent, 3. 4 percent and 1. 7 percent respectively this year, even if oil price remains at $ 40 per barrel. Even when the rates drop marginally, from 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, their growth would still be higher than their respective 3.1 percent, 2. 7 percent and 0.4 percent in 2003.
It can be inferred from the passage that______.
选项 A、price hike brings different effects on China and developed countries
B、ECB will lower the interest rates to reduce the impact of the soaring oil prices
C、oil production is about to be exceeded by demand in the international market
D、the U. S. trade imbalance won’t change until the price of oil declines
答案A
解析 推理判断题。第二段指出石油价格上涨对中国的负面影响，造成了中国经济增长率下降了0．8％个百分点，而在文章末段则指出尽管石油价格上涨，但像美国、日本、欧盟等这样的发达经济体，它们的经济增长率还是有所上升，所以可判断选项[A]正确。[B]、[C]与事实不符；油价上涨只是影响美国贸易不平衡的因素之一，故[C]说法太绝对。
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