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  3. Economics is all about consumption. A healthy economy is largely a result of a reasonable balance between consumption today and

Economics is all about consumption. A healthy economy is largely a result of a reasonable balance between consumption today and

admin2014-06-13  61
问题     Economics is all about consumption. A healthy economy is largely a result of a reasonable balance between consumption today and consumption deferred. To figure out what our buying behavior says about the U. S. economy’s future, my colleagues and I at NPR’s "Planet Money" went searching for as many shopping-based indicators as we could find, hoping some would unlock a hidden story about what Americans are feeling and where the country is headed.
    The results were mixed, but we did uncover some ominous signs. Lipstick sales used to go up when the economy went down, perhaps because women were searching for a cheap pick-me-up or an edge in a job interview—and sales of lipsticks are way up right now. Women’s underwear sales are down, which historically suggests intense frugality and more rough times ahead. But there are also some optimistic indicators. Sales of men’s underwear, one of Alan Greenspan’s favorite metrics for predicting growth, are also up. Sales of cheap spirits, which soared during the worst of the recession (people need an affordable way to self-medicate), have now stabilized, meaning, at the very least, that people can now afford better liquor.
    Of all the indicators we looked at, one of the most consistently accurate was Champagne sales. The amount of French Champagne that Americans consume has predicted—with nearly 90 percent accuracy— the average American income one year later. Apparently, when we pop a Champagne cork, we know that good times are ahead. Champagne sales hurtled upward twice in recent history—at the peak of the Internet bubble in 1999 and the housing bubble in 2007. These were both followed by slowdowns as fewer people found reason to celebrate.
    There are so many indicators to choose from that you could glean just about anything regarding our economic future. In fact, the most telling indicator appears to be the sheer number of indicators themselves. Americans now have so many seductive things they can buy that there are ample consumer options no matter what we feel. Partly as a result, savings—known in economics as deferred consumption—have fallen steadily for more than 30 years. The decline of the savings rate is particularly troubling because it is consistent through busts and booms. During the fast growth of the late 1990s and mid-2000s, and the dark times that followed, people have been choosing to spend more and save less than ever before. Paradoxically, this happened just as pensions have been disappearing and life spans have been increasing. It suggests that Americans are so caught up in every short-term enthusiasm or agony that they haven’t thought enough about long-term fiscal health.
    America will, most likely, need to find a more normal, sustainable level of consumption, and that’s exactly the problem. What does a reasonable balance between consumption now and consumption deferred actually look like? That’s what we need to figure out.

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答案E
解析 文章第三段提到了一种经济指向性很强的消费品，那就是香槟。因为人们往往只在经济形势好、赚到钱的时候才会开香槟庆祝，因此香槟就成为了指示经济情况的一种很好的指标。作者在第三段中用实例说明了香槟指标的准确性。在美国历史上，香槟销售数据最好的两年分别是在1999年互联网泡沫鼎盛的时期和2007年房地产泡沫鼎盛的时期。当泡沫破裂的时候，香槟销售数量也跟着急速下滑。题干问香槟销售在2007年急速上升的历史背景，正确答案应该是[E]the American economy is booming in its hey day。
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