首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Meteorologists routinely tell us what next week’s weather is likely to be, and climate scientists discuss what might happen in 1
Meteorologists routinely tell us what next week’s weather is likely to be, and climate scientists discuss what might happen in 1
admin
2015-04-24
64
问题
Meteorologists routinely tell us what next week’s weather is likely to be, and climate scientists discuss what might happen in 100 years. Christoph Schar, though, ventures dangerously close to that middle realm, where previously only the Farmer’s Almanac dared go: what will next summer’s weather be like? Following last year’s tragic heat wave, which directly caused the death of tens of thousands of people, the question is of burning interest to Europeans. Schar asserts that last summer’s sweltering temperatures should no longer be thought of as extraordinary. " The situation in 2002 and 2003 in Europe, where we had a summer with extreme rainfall and record flooding followed by the hottest summer in hundreds of years, is going to be typical for future weather patterns," he says.
Most Europeans have probably never read Schar’s report(not least because it was published in the scientific journal Nature in the dead of winter)but they seem to be bracing themselves for the worst. As part of its new national " heat-wave plan" , France issued a level-three alert when temperatures in Provence reached 34 degrees Celsius three days in a row; hospital and rescue workers were asked to prepare for an influx of patients. Italian government officials have proposed creating a national registry of people over 65 so they can be herded into air-conditioned supermarkets in the event of another heat wave. London’s mayor has offered a 100, 000 pound reward for anybody who can come up with a practical way of cooling the city’s underground trains, where temperatures have lately reached nearly 40 degrees Celsius.(The money hasn’t been claimed.)Global warming seems to have permanently entered the European psyche.
If the public is more aware, though, experts are more confused. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hammered out its last assessment in 2001, scientists pulled together the latest research and made their best estimate of how much the Earth’s atmosphere would warm during the next century. There was a lot they didn’t know, but they were confident they’d be able to plug the gaps in time for the next report, due out in 2007. When they explored the fundamental physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, though, they found something unexpected: the way the atmosphere—and, in particular, clouds—respond to increasing levels of carbon is far more complex and difficult to predict than they had expected. "We thought we’d reduce the uncertainty, but that hasn’t happened," says Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the next IPCC report. " As we delve further and further into the science and gain a better understanding of the true complexity of the atmosphere, the uncertainties have gotten deeper. "
This doesn’t mean, of course, that the world isn’t warming. Only the biased or the deluded deny that temperatures have risen, and that human activity has something to do with it. The big question that scientists have struggled with is how much warming will occur over the next century? With so much still unknown in the climate equation, there’s no way of telling whether warnings of catastrophe are overblown or if things are even more dire than we thought.
Why do scientists like Schar make predictions? Because, like economists, it’s their job to hazard a best guess with the resources at hand-namely, vast computer programs that simulate what the Earth’s atmosphere will do in certain circumstances. These models incorporate all the latest research into how the Earth’s atmosphere behaves. But there are problems with the computer models. The atmosphere is very big, but also consists of a multitude of tiny interactions among particles of dust, soot, cloud droplets and trace gases that cannot be safely ignored. Current models don’t have nearly the resolution they need to capture what goes on at such small scales.
Scientists got an inkling that something was missing from the models in the early 1990s when they ran a peculiar experiment. They had the leading models simulate warming over the next century and got a similar answer from each. Then they ran the models again — this time accounting for what was then known about cloud physics.
As to global warming in the next century, climate scientists’ answer is______.
选项
A、ambivalent
B、inexplicit
C、negative
D、affirmative
答案
B
解析
细节推断题。根据关键词global warming,climate scientists’answer定位至原文第四段。第四段尾句指出:there’s no way of telling whether warning of catastrophe are overblown or if things are evenmore dire than we thought.结合第三段首句的“If the public is more aware,though,experts are moreconfused.”可以推断科学家们对于下个世纪的气候变暖情况没有给出确定答案。故答案为B。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/eyLO777K
0
考博英语
相关试题推荐
TestshaveconfirmedthatfourpeopleinWisconsincontractedthemonkeypoxvirusaftercomingintoclosecontactwithpetprair
TestshaveconfirmedthatfourpeopleinWisconsincontractedthemonkeypoxvirusaftercomingintoclosecontactwithpetprair
Americanwomenexperienceagreat【1】oflifestyles.A"typical"Americanwomanmaybesingle.Shemayalsobedivorcedormarried
Americanwomenexperienceagreat【1】oflifestyles.A"typical"Americanwomanmaybesingle.Shemayalsobedivorcedormarried
Americanwomenexperienceagreat【1】oflifestyles.A"typical"Americanwomanmaybesingle.Shemayalsobedivorcedormarried
TwoteamsofastronomersusingtheHubbleSpaceTelescopehaveoverturnedseveraldecadesofconjectureandtheorybyrulingout
Inspiteofthe______economicforecasts,manufacturingoutputhasrisenslightly.
Wateristhegiverand,atthesametime,thetakeroflife.Itcoversmostofthesurfaceoftheplanetweliveonandfeatures
Wateristhegiverand,atthesametime,thetakeroflife.Itcoversmostofthesurfaceoftheplanetweliveonandfeatures
一位负责扶贫工作的官员说,到2004年底,尽管大多数贫困人口将解决温饱问题,还将有一些生活极端贫困的人们,他们还需要政府资助。此外,对于那些刚刚脱贫的人们,他们目前的生活状况必须改善,因为他们的生产和生活状况没有从根本上被改变。如果遭受自然灾害的袭击,就可
随机试题
功用为解肌透疹的方剂是功用为解肌清热的方剂是
选择性作用于βl受体的药物是
我国已将()种职业致癌物所致的癌症,列人职业病目录。
甲市某县电力调度大楼,层数四层,耐火等级不低于()级。
集合计划终止之日起一个工作日内,管理人和托管人应当在扣除管理费、托管费等费用后,将集合计划资产按照委托人持有集合计划份额的比例或集合资产管理合同的约定,以证券形式分派给委托人。( )
甲公司2012年1月1日购入面值为200万元,年利率为4%的A债券;取得时支付价款208万元(含已到付息期但尚未发放的利息8万元),另支付交易费用1万元,甲公司将该项金融资产划分为交易性金融资产。2012年1月5日,收到购买时价款中所含的利息8万元,201
甲公司有一注册商标,其有效期将于1997年6月1日届满,该公司需要继续使用此商标,便向乙律师提出咨询。乙律师的意见正确的有()
因为面临预算困难,政府机构减少了他们的科研基金,更大量的类似的研究现在由私人基金赞助。这种变化意味着可能导致具有争论性后果的研究将占据所有被资助项目的较小比例。因为私人基金考虑到他们的公众形象,倾向于避免争议。下列哪一个是上文所做的假设?
①导游_______地告诉我们,遇到野象没什么,最多回头跑50米,野象就不会再追了。②你为什么不对我说真话?你为什么老是_______,应付我?③他们看我们,也许就像我们看蚂蚁一般,即使我们中间的那么伟大人物,在他们看来也_______
Thebossmadetheworkers(work)______frommorningtillnight.
最新回复
(
0
)