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  3. Globalization is under strain as never before. Everywhere its stresses rumble. Most of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the Mi

Globalization is under strain as never before. Everywhere its stresses rumble. Most of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the Mi

admin2014-08-05  150
问题 Globalization is under strain as never before. Everywhere its stresses rumble. Most of sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the Middle East, and Central Asia are mired in stagnation or economic decline. North America, Western Europe, and Japan are bogged down in slow growth and risk renewed recession. War now beckons in Iraq.
For advocates of open markets and free trade this experience poses major challenges. Why is globalization so at risk? Why are its benefits seemingly concentrated in a few locations? Can a more balanced globalization be achieved?
No easy answers to these questions exist. Open markets are necessary for economic growth, but they are hardly sufficient. Some regions of the world have done extremely well from globalization— notably East Asia and China in recent years. Yet some regions have done miserably, especially sub-Saharan Africa.
The truth is that economic performance is determined not only by governance standards, but by geopolitics, geography, and economic structure. Countries with large populations, and hence large internal markets, tend to grow more rapidly than countries with small populations.
Coastal countries tend to outperform landlocked countries. Countries with high levels of malaria tend to endure slower growth than countries with lower levels of malaria. Developing countries that neighbor rich markets, such as Mexico, tend to outperform countries far away from major markets.
These differences matter. If rich countries don’ t pay heed to such structural issues, we will find that the gaps between the world’ s winners and losers will continue to widen. If rich countries blame unlucky countries—claiming that they are somehow culturally or politically unfit to benefit from globalization—we will create not only deeper pockets of poverty but also deepening unrest. This, in turn, will result in increasing levels of violence, backlash, and yes, terrorism.
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答案 全球化止在经受前所未有的压力。这种压力在世界各地轰轰烈烈地持续着。大部分撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，南美，中东和中亚全都深陷经济停滞或经济衰退的泥潭。北美，西欧和日本陷入缓慢增长的困境，并面临着新一轮的经济衰退。而战争现在正在召唤着伊拉克。 对于那些开放市场和自由贸易的倡导者来说，这种经历提出了重大的挑战。为何全球化风险这样大?为何它的利益似乎只集中在少数几个地方?更加平衡的全球化能够实现吗? 对这些问题，并没有简单的答案。开放的市场对经济增长来说是必要的，却很难说是充分的。世界上有些地区，特别是东亚和中国，近些年来从全球化中获益匪浅，而有的地区则遭遇困境，尤其是撒哈拉以南的非洲。 事实是，经济表现不仅取决于管理的标准，还取决于地缘政治，地理位置和经济结构。人口众多的国家拥有巨大的内部市场，往往比人口较少的国家发展快。 沿海国家的表现往往优于内陆国家；疟疾肆虐的国家发展速度慢于疟疾罕见的国家；毗邻富裕市场的发展中国家，比如墨西哥，则遥遥领先于远离主要市场的国家。 这差异非常重要。如果富国不留意这种结构性的问题，我们会发现世界的贫富差距将继续增大。如果富国责怪这些运气不好的国家——声称他们不知为何在文化或政治上不适宜从全球化中受益——我们将不仅制造更深层次的贫困，还将加剧动荡不安，继而导致日趋严重的暴力，反击，以及恐怖主义。
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