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  3. Japan’s once enviable jobless rate will soar to double-digit levels if—and the warning is a big one—firms opt for drastic Wester

Japan’s once enviable jobless rate will soar to double-digit levels if—and the warning is a big one—firms opt for drastic Wester

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问题    Japan’s once enviable jobless rate will soar to double-digit levels if—and the warning is a big one—firms opt for drastic Western-style layoffs to boost profits. While Japan’s life-time employment system is visibly unravelling, many economists still doubt whether a scenario of soaring joblessness will occur, given that economic incentives to slash payoffs clash with social and political pressures to save jobs. A kinder, gentler approach to restructuring would soften the social instability many fear would result from doubling the jobless rate, already at a record high.
   Critics believe it would also cap gains in profit margins and stifle economic vitality, especially in the absence of bold steps to open the door to new growth industries. Some economists believe different methods of counting mean Japan’s jobless rate is already close to 7 percent by United States standards, not that far from the 7.8 percent peak hit in the US in 1992 when it began to emerge from a two-year slump.
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答案 如果各公司断然采取西方国家裁员的做法以增加利润，日本一度令人羡慕的失业率将飙升至两位数。虽然日本的终生雇佣制明显地在解体，但是鉴于大幅裁员刺激经济的动机同要求保留工作岗位的社会压力和政治压力相冲突，许多经济学家仍无法断定日本是否会出现失业率急剧上升的局面。以一个较为仁慈和温和的做法调整经济，可以缓解社会的动荡不安，因为许多人担心早已创纪录的失业率如再增长一倍就会导致社会不安定。 评论家们认为，高失业率还会限制利润的增长和抑制经济活力，特别是如果不采取大胆步骤为增长型产业敞开大门的话。一些经济学家认为，有不同的方法计算，按美国标准，日本的失业率早已接近7％，同1992年美国7．8％的最高失业率相去不远，而当时美国开始走出两年的经济衰退期。
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