首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa
admin
2013-01-28
49
问题
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Party and White-hall has believed a Treasury forecast. Anyone with half an eye on the unemployment figures or with a mortgage knew that Chancellor Norman Lamont’s repeated claims about recovery being "just around the corner" were untrue.
Yet only a fortnight ago Gary Becker, an American economist, won a Nobel prize for his work on using economics to explain aspects of human behavior, such as drug addiction and crime. So why do e-conomists using Britain’s longest running predictive model still have trouble forecasting whether people will spend more or less money in the shops in the next three months? The answer is that they are caught in a race they cannot win, where however fast they try to keep their predictive equations abreast (not behind) of changing patterns in production and spending, peoples’ behavior changes faster.
Some people claim economics and econometrics should be expelled from the broad scientific church. But that would be foolish. Their present weakness is that they are only perfect when dealing with theory. Use them to make real-world forecasts and things go wrong-principally the answers. But that is typical of a young science. Until the 1930s, only economists were interested in accurately predicting the economic behavior of large numbers of people. The Depression made it a matter of wider interest and urgency. The emergence then of national income statistics helped economics and econometrics to develop. But the art in using both still lies in knowing, when you are crossing the line between prediction and guesswork.
The government seems not to recognize this. Of late it has pushed and pulled the levers of money supply, tax and interest rates like children let loose on the bridge of a ship. And politicians such as Lamont also have a hand in Treasury forecasts.
"That is the worst way to use a science" , says Becker. "If economics has any claim to be a science and to belong to the Nobel award structure—and I firmly believe that it does—then economists should avoid political propaganda and convey to the public some flavor of the scientific quality of economics. The government should stop interfering and let its specialists apply their programs, which embody years of experience, as tools to solve the problem of how to make the economy healthy".
American economist Gary Becket______.
选项
A、objected to the involvement of economics in political propaganda
B、declared Lamont’s claim about economic recovery untrue
C、opposed increasing cash supply to stimulate economic growth
D、foresaw people’s behavior in consumption and production
答案
A
解析
细节题。题干中的“Gary Becket”出自文章第二段和最后一段。第二段提到,加里·贝克因为利用经济学解释人类行为的研究而获得了诺贝尔奖;最后一段指出:贝克认为,经济学家应该避免政治宣传,应该向公众传达经济学的一些科学特性。A符合题意,为正确选项。B是关注失业数字或抵押的人的观点;贝克只是认为政府应该停止干预,没有反对增加货币供应,所以C与文意不符;D与第二段的意思不符。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/r7p4777K
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
WhichofthefollowingisNottrueaccordingtothefirsttwoparagraphs?Whichofthefollowingquestionsdoesthetextanswer
WhichofthefollowingisNottrueaccordingtothefirsttwoparagraphs?TheperformancesinrelationtoWhorf’sclaimofthe
Inanidealworld,thenation’seliteschoolswouldenrollthemostqualifiedstudents.Butthat’snothowit(1)_____.Applican
Everymanisrichorpooraccordingtothedegreeinwhichhecanaffordtoenjoythenecessaries,conveniences,andamusements
IntheUnitedStates,thefirstday-nurserywasopenedin1854.Nurserieswereestablishedinvariousareasduringthe(1)_____
IntheUnitedStates,thefirstday-nurserywasopenedin1854.Nurserieswereestablishedinvariousareasduringthe(1)_____
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatl
Manfirstappearedonearthhalfamillionyearsago.Thenhewaslittlemorethanananimal;butearlymanhadseveralbigadva
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe(1)_____statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalac
Overtheyears,asthemusical"Rent"hasreachedmilestoneaftermilestone—playingaroundtheworldinmorethan200production
随机试题
简述防卫过当及其刑事责任。
内源件和外源性凝血途径开始共同起作用的凝血因子为()
五味子的主要成分为
麻醉前为了抑制腺体分泌,保持呼吸道通畅,可选用
刘国出国期间将其所有的一套房子交给朋友王风暂住,后王风未经刘国同意将房子卖给某房地产公司,刘国回国后将王风告上法庭,法院判决主风将卖房所得全部房款还给刘国。王风不服提出上诉,并在二审审理中提出要求刘国返还房屋修缮金的请求。对于该请求的说法以及法院的处理正确
资料:A直辖市南城区的海陵酒店,被确定为定期定额纳税户,其老板张某于2002年1月将酒店承包给钱某经营,钱某每月向张某交承包费4000元,有关承包经营事项,张某未向税务机关报告。自2002年1月起该酒店一直未向税务机关申报纳税,税务机关多次催缴无效。200
()是指按借贷协议在一定时期可以变动的利率,其具有一定的科学合理性。
社会主义精神文明在社会主义现代化建设中具有重要的战略地位和作用,表现在()。
下述不是对象一关系数据库的基本特征的是
Waffles?Frenchtoast?Bacon?Bigbreakfastsmaybeathingofthepast.AccordingtotheAssociatedPress,moreAmericansarec
最新回复
(
0
)