首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Statistic Ⅰ. The defendant is guilty or not? Expert: 1) A DNA sample【1】______ defendant’s.
Statistic Ⅰ. The defendant is guilty or not? Expert: 1) A DNA sample【1】______ defendant’s.
admin
2010-05-14
12
问题
Statistic
Ⅰ. The defendant is guilty or not?
Expert:
1) A DNA sample【1】______ defendant’s. 【1】______
2) The possibility of odds is one in million.
Defense lawyer:
Counter the fact that if in a city of three million people, there are【2】______【2】______
matching each other’ s DNA.
Ⅱ. Unjust discrimination?
1) Universities add additional points to minority group students.
They unlawfully make an easier【3】______ for those students. 【3】______
2) Annie was kept from【4】______. Her lawyer used statistics to show 【4】______
that workers, who were not in【5】______ group, with the same 【5】______
qualifications were promoted.
3) Tobacco companies won the cases because of the【6】______ 【6】______
Warning: statistics should be【7】______ along with other evidence. 【7】______
Ⅲ. Statistics in calculation:
1)【8】______ analysis: e.g. Bert could no longer work. Statisticians 【8】______
predict how long he could work and how long he could have made.
2) Multiple regression analysis: Statistician finds the "best fit"
for all the sample data when multiple independent【9】______ are at work. 【9】______
Ⅳ. Statistics on the witness stand:
--experts know how to make statistics【10】______ 【10】______
--cross examine and challenge the validity of statistics
【4】
Statistics
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Today, we are going to have a lecture on statistics. Firstly, let’s see the effect of statistics in the courtroom.
After the November 2000 election, Americans waited while court challenges debated who won Florida’s electoral votes, In Palm Beach County, third-party candidate Pat Buchanan got a higher percentage of votes than he did elsewhere. Was that because the country’s "butterfly ballot" caused many Albert Gore supporters to punch the wrong hole? Lawyers also argued about other claimed irregularities in the balloting.
The Supreme Court finally stopped all vote recounts in early December. But if Gore’s statistical arguments had convinced the judges, he would have become president instead of George W. Bush. More than ever, plaintiffs must often prove their case with numbers. Let’s see how statistics is taking center stage in some other courtroom cases.
Let’s see the first case whether the defendant is guilty or not.
Imagine you’re on the jury in a murder case. An expert testifies about DNA evidence. She says that a sample from the crime scene matches a defendant’ s. she also gives the odds that someone else would randomly match the tested fragments. If the odds are one in a million, the makes it sound very likely that the defendant is, in fact, guilty. The defense lawyer may try to counter that by saying that in a city of three million people, at least two others would also probably match. Of course, the defendant was not arrested at random. Almost always, police have some other evidence linking a person to a crime. But the statistics supporting DNA evidence may be just the proff needed to find someone guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
Now, I would like you to look at the cases against unjust discrimination.
In a U.S. Supreme Court case earlier this year, lawyers argued over whether a state university’ s admissions plan unlawfully added points for students from certain minority groups. Statistically, that made it easier for those students to get in. statistics factors into other discrimination cases, too. Suppose Annie claims that unlawful discrimination kept her from getting a promotion. Her lawyers may use statistics to show that workers with the same qualifications were significantly more likely to get promotions of they were male or not in a minority group. If the employer can’t show that Annie didn’t do her job well, she could then win her case.
Age, family history, exercise habits, diet, weight, and other factors affect the likelihood of developing cancer, heart disease, and other illnesses. For years, tobacco companies said that smoking was not the cause of plaintiffs getting sick. They won most cases against them. Then, judges and juries listened to statistical evidence that even when other factors were equal, smokers had much higher disease risks. Finally, some cases started to hold tobacco companies liable, or legally responsible.
Of course, the plaintiffs had other evidence, too. Tobacco companies’ own documents showed that they knew about disease risks. Yet their ads still targeted young people. In other words, the statistics did not stand alone. When using statistics, it is important to understand that statistical evidence complements other forms of evidence. Statistical evidence should be evaluated along with other evidence and not alone.
And then how can the court work out the compensation the victims should gain? Statistics help add up damages actually. Statistics help decide how much people or companies must pay if they are liable. Suppose a defect in a car caused an accident. As a result, Bert could no longer work. Statistics could show how long Bert would other wise have worked and how much he probably would have made. When two variables correlate with each other statisticians can often predict one value from another with regression analysis. If someone plotted all the data points on a scatter plot, the analysis would find the line with the best fit through them.
But suppose that people in case claimed that nearby pollution lowered property values for a whole neighborhood. It may be unfair just to match sale prices with distance form the pollution, or to compare average prices with another town. After all, many factors affect property values: style of house, size, age, number of bathrooms, and so forth. That’s where multiple regression analysis can help. It finds the "best fit" for all the sample data when multiple independent variables are at work. It nets out the effects of all these things that are different, so that you are comparing apples to apples.
You will also know that statistics have the power on the witness stand. Good statistical experts make numbers "user--friendly" for the judge and jury. Many use high-tech graphics and other tools to present their conclusions. But statistics can be and have been misused, typically when people have interpreted that statistics to mean more than they really do. A good statistician is careful to explain just how reliable the statistics really are. Cross-examination lets each side attach the other side’s analysis flawed. Were data accurate, or may they have been biased? What was the margin of error? Did one unusual observation, or outlier, unfairly affect the outcome?
Finally, the jury weighs statistical evidence along with all the other evidence. The verdict makes a real difference in the lives of parties to a case--and to our justice system.
Today, we’ve talked about the magic of statistics working in various fields and events, like in the court, in the issues against discrimination, in calculating damages and on the testimony. I hope you would have had a good time.
选项
答案
promotion
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/sIlO777K
0
专业英语八级
相关试题推荐
OnDecember5,1945,at2:00pm,agroupof【C1】______tookoffinperfectweatherforapracticeflightovertheAtlanticOcean.
ThestoryofNokia’stransformationfromanobscureFinnishconglomerateintotheworld’slargestmakerofmobilephonesisano
LasVegaswasfounded【B1】______yearsagoandwasofficially【B2】______in1905.Sincethen,LasVegashastransformeditselfint
LasVegaswasfounded【B1】______yearsagoandwasofficially【B2】______in1905.Sincethen,LasVegashastransformeditselfint
A、TheyencouragedtheKenyanstohelpthemselvesinthefightingagainstthecatastrophe.B、TheyrequestedhelpfromtheUnited
WhenEnochPowell,aConservativeMP,gaveaspeechin1968callingforanendtoimmigration,hereceivedsomanylettersofsu
Ricci’s"OperationColumbus"1Ricci,45,isnowstrikingoutonperhapshisboldestventureyet.HeplanstomarketanEngl
"Toerrishuman,toforgive,divine"."Alittlelearningisadangerousthing"aretakenfromthepoemswrittenby______.
RobotshavebeenthestuffofpopularcultureforsolongthatWethinkofthemmostlyasafun.Inthenextdecadetheywillfi
ACareerinAccountingAsafieldofstudyandwork,accountingisexpandingthroughouttheworld.Ajobinaccountingpromi
随机试题
Julialikestorentahouse,whichiscomfortable,well-equippedand,________,inaquietneighborhood.
引起膝内翻、外翻,最常见的病因是【】
通过项目评价,以判断项目的()可行性和抗风险能力。
商检机构可以接受对外贸易关系人的申请,依照有关法律、行政法规的规定签发普惠制原产地证、一般原产地证。( )
当出现滞销楼盘突然热销或楼盘售价与周围楼盘相比明显偏高时,很有可能会出假个贷的情况。
按决策问题的风险特性不同,决策可以分为()。[2007年真题]
已完成销售手续、但购买方在当月尚未提取的产品,销售方仍应作为本企业库存商品核算。()
3G是指第三代数字通信技术,它以手机语音功能之外的无线上网、手机电视等数据功能为特色。按3G标准生产的手机问世后,人们可以购机宽带上网、视频通话、网络游戏、移动电邮、移动搜索、传输音像、网络电视等。这说明()。
目前在火电领域诞生的新技术很多,联合循环技术就是其中之一。简单来说,联合循环技术就是“一气两用”:将燃气轮机排出的高温废气,通过余热锅炉回收转换为蒸汽。进入蒸汽轮机后驱动其运转,两台轮机都将动能输送至发电机进行发电;废气再次进入锅炉,进一步将其中蕴含的热能
无论是欧式期权还是美式期权,在期权到期日之后买卖双方权利与义务()。
最新回复
(
0
)