首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
You will hear a part of a speech about the Asian crisis. Choose the best answer for each of the questions (23—30). Mark one le
You will hear a part of a speech about the Asian crisis. Choose the best answer for each of the questions (23—30). Mark one le
admin
2012-11-10
96
问题
You will hear a part of a speech about the Asian crisis.
Choose the best answer for each of the questions (23—30).
Mark one letter (A, B or C) for the answer you choose.
You will hear the speech twice.
What effect will the crisis have on longer-term economic growth and structural change? The crisis has dislocated the use of resources, but it has not negated the years of human and physical capital accumulation and institutional development. Many of the conditions which supported sustained rapid growth will remain in place: high savings and investment; emphasis on education acceptance of a major role for markets in resource allocation deep integration into the international economy; and, after a while, the self-reinforcing character of internationally-oriented growth across neighbouring economies.
It is possible but not certain that the international orientation of East Asian economies will have been enhanced by the crisis. The initial round of crisis-induced policy reform, reinforced by the IMF programs, will make markets more effective in allocating resources. In Indonesia in particular, the market-oriented reforms within the IMF agreement are far-reaching. The question is whether these reforms will survive recovery, or whether they will be discredited as arrangements imposed from outside when East Asian developing economies were weak.
Two of the preconditions of growth in the old East Asian style have obviously been lost for the time being a reasonable degree of macroeconomic stability and political coherence around the growth objective.
If the current stabilization programs are successful, the prospects for future economic stability will have been enhanced. Exactly the same mistakes will not be made again. There will be greater caution at signs of inflationary pressure and payments imbalances. In the troubled countries, there is unlikely to be a return to the hybrid exchange rate regimes that were in place at the onset of crisis. The choice will be between a floating rate and a rigidly fixed rate in the Hong Kong style.
The restoration of political coherence and stability around the growth objective is facilitated by constitutional and political arrangements that support reasonably smooth political change in Thailand, Korea and Malaysia. The challenge is greater in Indonesia.
In the years leading up to the crisis, the more advanced among the troubled economies were experiencing pressures for rapid change in economic structure and export specialization to support continued economic growth. Korea was grappling with reform of the chaebol to support the more intensive innovation, flexibility and competition that is necessary in a high-income advanced economy. Malaysia was experiencing success in graduation from labour-intensive to more technologically complex production, but faced shortage of high-level skills and, in the meantime, needed institutional reform in order to use efficiently high levels of foreign skills and technology. Thailand had exhausted the potential for extensive growth based on absorption of surplus agricultural labour into modern industries, and needed high investment in education of a fairly basic kind to effect a change in comparative advantage to support continued rapid growth.
The pressure for structural change has eased for the time being. But with the rehabilitation of financial systems, the expected strong performance in the export industries and the consequent appreciations of real exchange rates as recovery proceeds, the pressures will return. Continued strong growth from that time will depend on the progress that is made on the structural issues in the troubled years.
For East Asian developing economies on the edge of the crisis, contagion and demonstration effects will be important. China’s intention to hold the value of the yuan for some time near its current rate against the dollar will be challenged by the restored competitiveness of Southeast Asian economies in labour-intensive industries. China will need to continue the structural reform and investment in skills that is necessary to support the graduation of its higher-income coastal provinces into more advanced patterns of export specialization. The holding of its current exchange rate would be facilitated by real appreciation as East Asian risk premises ease in recovery.
Vietnam looks more vulnerable to adverse effects in the medium term. Current account deficits as a proportion of GDP have been larger in Vietnam than in any other major Southeast Asian economy in recent years. Contagion makes the deficits more difficult to finance. Structural reform would seem to be an urgent requirement, and yet the crisis might seem to argue for caution in internationally-oriented reform. Vietnam will face immense problems if it draws the wrong lessons.
The shock of 1997 is a defining event in the economic history of East Asia. Like the Great Depression in the West, it has the capacity to change thought about economic development and economic policy in fundamental ways.
It was always the case that industrial policy directed by "money politics" was a drag on East Asian growth, although this was a hard case to argue in the happy years (Smith 1995). For the moment, the crisis has reinforced the need for competitive markets and transparent regulatory arrangements. It has discredited government direction of subsidized resources to favoured enterprises, which some had argued was an ingredient of East Asian success.
Everywhere, there will be lingering questions about the wisdom and timing of opening the capital account and about the associated reform that is necessary to make the opening successful. For those more developed Asian economies, the lessons of crisis will mainly be about the systemic reforms that are necessary for an open capital account to be consistent with reasonable stability. Others will be cautious about moving ahead soon.
The lessons that will be drawn after the crisis depend on whether the current stabilization programs in Thailand, Korea and Malaysia lead to early recovery and the restoration of strong growth. If they do not, the recent commitments to competitive markets and transparency will be viewed sceptically.
For the whole of Southeast Asia, the future of political cohesion and economic development in Indonesia will strongly influence the lessons that are drawn from the 1997 crisis. And that big story is still unfolding.
选项
A、A floating exchange rate.
B、A rigidly fixed rate.
C、A hybrid exchange rate.
答案
C
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/u0zO777K
本试题收录于:
BEC中级听力题库BEC商务英语分类
0
BEC中级听力
BEC商务英语
相关试题推荐
TaskTwo—ReactionForquestions18-22,matchtheextractswiththereactions,listedA-H.Foreachextract,choosetheo
TaskTwo—ReactionForquestions18-22,matchtheextractswiththereactions,listedA-H.Foreachextract,choosetheo
YouwillhearfivedifferentpeopletalkingaboutaposterbyAndrewClarkontheDiscuztheyhavejustloggedin.Foreach
Youwillhearaspeakeraddressingagroupofpeopleattendingaconference.Asyoulisten,forquestions1—12,completethenot
Youwillhearaninterviewaboutajobinterview.Foreachquestion(23-30),markoneletter(A,BorC)forthecorrectanswer
Youwillhearfivedifferentpeopletalkingaboutwaystobuildsustainabilityintothefabricoftheirbusiness.Foreache
Youwillhearfivedifferentpeopletalkingaboutajob-huntinglecturetheyhavejustattended.Foreachextractthereare
Youwillhearfivedifferentpeopletalkingaboutajob-huntinglecturetheyhavejustattended.Foreachextractthereare
•TheCustomerServicesDepartmentofyourfastfoodchainrestaurantconductedstafftraininginordertoreducethenumberofco
Writeananswertooneofthequestions2-4inthispart.Writeyouranswerin200-250words.Question2Thenumberofstaff
随机试题
对于标底,下列说法正确的是()。
IgG的生物学活性不包括
行胆囊造影患者,检查前一日晚餐进食
《公路水运工程试验检测人员继续教育办法(试行)》的实施时间是()。
某场地中自0~1.0m为回填土,γ1=18kN/m3,自1.0m以下为黏性土,ck=15kPa,φk=18°,γ2=19kN/m3,地下水位为4.5m,基础埋深为2.5m,基础宽度为4.0m。据《建筑地基基础设计规范》(GB50007—2002),地
根据设备基础附近水准点,用水准仪测出的标志具体数值。相邻安装基准点,高差应在()以内。平面控制的坐标系统,应满足测区内投影长度变形值不大于()。
根据《中外合资经营企业法》的规定,合营企业必须由出席董事会会议的董事一致通过方可做出决议的事项有()。
A.withtimesandcircumstancesB.existinmuchgreaterclearnessC.thateveninthemassandbodyD.provideforhumanwa
(2013年真题)甲使用暴力劫取国有档案,人民法院根据我国《刑法》第329条“抢夺、窃取国家所有的档案的,处……”的规定,判决甲犯抢夺国有档案罪。本案中,法院的解释属于()。
设常数a>0,f(x)=.则()
最新回复
(
0
)