2. 外语
  3. Statistics over four consecutive years showed that four percent more automobile accidents happened in California during the week

Statistics over four consecutive years showed that four percent more automobile accidents happened in California during the week

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问题 Statistics over four consecutive years showed that four percent more automobile accidents happened in California during the week following the switch to daylight saving time and during the week following the switch back to standard time than occurred the week before each event. These statistics show that these time changes adversely affect the alertness of California drivers. The conclusion in the argument above is based on which of the following assumptions?
选项 A、Drivers in California as well as those in the rest of the United States have similar driving patterns.
B、The observed increases in accident rates are due almost entirely to an increase in the number of minor accidents.
C、Four years is not a sufficiently long period of time over which to judge the phenomenon described.
D、There are no other factors such as school vacations or holiday celebrations that cause accident rates to rise during these weeks.
E、A time change at any other time of year would not produce a similar increase in accident rates.
答案D
解析 本题由一个statistics“转入夏令时与转回正常时间的一周中事故多了”，而得出解释性的结论“时制转换是原因”，属于典型的“B，A”型假设，思路要么为A可行或有意义(无因就无果)，要么为除了A以外没有其他原因了。(D)指出没有其他引起事故发生增加的因素，所以符合了第二种思路，因此(D)正确。(A)讨论的“the rest of the United States”为新概念；(B)的“minor accidents”也为新概念；(C)起到了反对作用；(E)主要错在“similar”这个词，所以其部分地反对了上述推理。
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