2. 考研
  3. In the following text, some sentences have been removed. For Questions 41-45, choose the most suitable one from the list (A、B、C、

In the following text, some sentences have been removed. For Questions 41-45, choose the most suitable one from the list (A、B、C、

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问题 In the following text, some sentences have been removed. For Questions 41-45, choose the most suitable one from the list (A、B、C、D、E、F、G……) to fit into each of the numbered blank. There are several extra choices, which do not fit in any of the gaps. (10 points)

    The start of monetary union in Europe is an exciting event. There is little doubt that it can unleash a new dynamic of enterprise and growth benefiting all of us. (41)______.
    Euro-land faces these risks because it is still an incomplete and unfinished project. It is incomplete because, while monetary policies will now be conducted at the European level, the other tools of macroeconomic management remain firmly in the hands of national authorities. It is unfinished because the European Central Bank (ECB) itself has been left handicapped in the event of major financial crises
    (42)______. These conflicts will be raised when economic conditions diverge within Euro-land. Inevitably, the difficulties in coordinating different national policies with the monetary policy of the ECB will create tensions and disagreement. Of course, the same thing happens within a nation between the national central bank and the government. But the intensity of the conflict is likely to be greater in Euro-land because the national governments bear political responsibility for deteriorating economic conditions, whereas the ECB will be some far away institution without political accountability.
    The ECB itself will be handicapped by the fact that an essential part of monetary policies—bank supervision and control, has been left to national authorities, including national banks. This will not matter much in times of financial stability. But in periods of financial upheaval, which inevitably will occur, it could have a substantial impact. The ECB will then lack the information and instruments to act quickly. This may very well exacerbate the crisis.
    History tells us that monetary unification must be part of a whole. One cannot simply centralize monetary decision-making without at the same time centralizing the other parts of macroeconomic management. And the fact is that crucial parts of the latter have remained in the hands of the nation states in Europe. In a sense one can say that the start of Euro-land is like a move into a new and beautiful house, which unfortunately, does not yet have a roof.
    So, where does that lead us? Two possible scenarios emerge, an optimistic and a pessimistic one. (43)______.
    The second scenario is less idyllic. European citizens resist further attempts to transfer power to European institutions. Euro-land lingers in its unfinished state. Economic storms stir rancor between the ECB and the national governments, and among the national governments themselves. Instead of an oasis of monetary stability, Euro-land becomes a source of instability. The Euro would not become the strong and stable currency that so many observers expect it to be. (44)______.
    Which of the two scenarios is the more likely? (45)______. These do not exist. One conclusion, however, can be drawn. If Euro-land fails to move forward toward political union, it will not last.

A. The simple fact that monetary policies will be governed by a European institution while fiscal policies remain in the hands of the national governments creates the risk of serious conflicts between governments and the ECB.
B. But the introduction of the Euro is also replete with risks. There are worth keeping in mind even as champagne bottles are uncorked in celebration.
C. The ECB was deeply stirred by economic reasons raised from national governments.
D. On the contrary, it would be weak and no match for the dollar.
E. In the optimistic version, European leaders realize the unfinished nature of the EMU project and act quickly to unify the other parts of macroeconomic policies.
F. Lack of authorities handicapped the ECB in monetary development.
G. To attach probabilities to these scenarios, one needs past observations of similar events.

选项
答案G
解析 首句对两种情况的可能性做出提问，而G紧接着问题做出回答，对于这两种情况的可能性，人们需要对过去的相同的事件进行观察。
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