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  3. The World Financial Situation Bond markets appear to be telling a different story. Bond prices have continued rallying, and

The World Financial Situation Bond markets appear to be telling a different story. Bond prices have continued rallying, and

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问题     The World Financial Situation
    Bond markets appear to be telling a different story. Bond prices have continued rallying, and the yield for two-year US Treasuries has fallen to 3. 1% (as at 12 December). Bond markets have also priced in future interest rate cuts, which has helped their yields fall. Bonds are seen as forward indicators. Bond prices rally and yields fall when investors anticipate an economic downturn. During recessionary periods, bonds tend to outperform as investors switch out of growth assets into safe investing instruments.
    The divergence in bond and equity markets could be the result of economic uncertainty. At present, US economic growth appears to be moderating, driven by a sharp slowdown in the housing sector. The problems in sub-prime mortgages, when homeowners increased mortgages on their homes at temporary low rates of interest in order to provide themselves with immediate spending money, have led to more foreclosures and caused house prices to decline. Financial institutions with direct or indirect exposure to sub-prime mortgages have started reporting huge profit losses, and their increased reluctance to lend has led to tighter credit conditions. Excessive tightening and much lower house prices could lead to reduced US domestic consumption. This has raised fears of a recession. As more banks report larger than expected losses, concern over the potential impact on the financial system and the economy has increased, deepening fears of a recession.
    However, key data such as employment has continued to hold up ( supporting domestic consumption) , and companies continue to report profits. This supports the hope that the US economy will not enter a period of negative economic growth, and won’t fall into a recession. Key to this will be how the Fed responds to tightening credit conditions. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and has left the door open to further cuts if necessary. It has also announced measures to inject liquidity into the financial system.
    In an overall environment of soft growth, investors will likely pay a premium for markets where growth appears more certain. As growth in the US will be relatively slow, focus is likely to turn to high-growth emerging markets. Asia, except Japan, will be the likely beneficiary, as valuations still remain relatively reasonable and economic growth remains strong.
    The trend toward a weaker US dollar is likely to continue but the USD is unlikely to collapse. We expect that Asian currencies will continue to appreciate against the USD as they adjust to reflect their stronger underlying fundamentals. In the short term, the USD could continue to depreciate against the GBP and EUR, but these currencies look increasingly expensive in valuation terms.
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答案 全球经济局势 债券市场好像是另一番景象。债券价格一路反弹，到12月12日两年期美国国债收益率已跌至3．1％。债券市场已根据未来减息定价，致收益率继续下跌。债券被视作是前瞻性指标。当投资者预期未来经济低迷时，债券价格会反弹但收益率下降。在经济衰退期，投资者纷纷从成长性投资产品撤出，转而投向安全稳定的投资产品，这时的债券表现更佳。 债券市场和股市的不同可能是经济不稳定导致的。目前，受到房地产行业急剧回落的拖累，美国经济增长速度放缓。为了让自己有钱花，房屋的主人以暂时的低利率提高房屋按揭数额，结果引发次贷问题。次贷问题又导致房屋被没收，房价下跌。直接或间接受到次贷问题影响的金融机构开始公布其巨额亏损，而越来越不愿提供贷款导致这些机构的信贷条件越来越严苛。过分缩紧银根以及房价大幅下跌会降低美国国内消费水平。这导致了人们对经济衰退产生恐慌情绪。由于越来越多的银行开始公布超乎预期的亏损，人们对于金融系统和整个经济可能遭受重创的担忧日益加剧，这也加重了人们对于经济衰退的恐慌。 不过，一些关键数据如就业率等守住了阵脚(这也支撑了国内消费)，而且公司仍在公布盈利的消息。这使人们对美国经济不会进入负增长，从而不会引发经济衰退抱有一线希望。问题的关键在于美联储如何应对不断严苛的信贷条件。美联储在12月降低了利率，并且必要时仍可能继续减息。此外，美联储还宣布将加强金融系统的流动性。 在经济增长放缓的大环境下，投资者就会为增长前景更为明确的领域付出手头富余的资金。由于美国经济增长相对减缓，注意力将会转移到经济增长更快的新兴市场。因此，除日本以外的亚洲国家都可能受益，因为对其估值依然相对合理，且其经济发展依旧保持较快增长态势。 美元贬值可能还会继续，但还不至于到崩盘的地步。我们期望，在亚洲货币自我调整显示出较强基本面时，亚洲货币对美元能继续升值。短期来看，美元对英镑和欧元的汇率可能会继续下滑，但这些货币的估值仍将逐步走高。
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