首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa
admin
2013-01-28
51
问题
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Party and White-hall has believed a Treasury forecast. Anyone with half an eye on the unemployment figures or with a mortgage knew that Chancellor Norman Lamont’s repeated claims about recovery being "just around the corner" were untrue.
Yet only a fortnight ago Gary Becker, an American economist, won a Nobel prize for his work on using economics to explain aspects of human behavior, such as drug addiction and crime. So why do e-conomists using Britain’s longest running predictive model still have trouble forecasting whether people will spend more or less money in the shops in the next three months? The answer is that they are caught in a race they cannot win, where however fast they try to keep their predictive equations abreast (not behind) of changing patterns in production and spending, peoples’ behavior changes faster.
Some people claim economics and econometrics should be expelled from the broad scientific church. But that would be foolish. Their present weakness is that they are only perfect when dealing with theory. Use them to make real-world forecasts and things go wrong-principally the answers. But that is typical of a young science. Until the 1930s, only economists were interested in accurately predicting the economic behavior of large numbers of people. The Depression made it a matter of wider interest and urgency. The emergence then of national income statistics helped economics and econometrics to develop. But the art in using both still lies in knowing, when you are crossing the line between prediction and guesswork.
The government seems not to recognize this. Of late it has pushed and pulled the levers of money supply, tax and interest rates like children let loose on the bridge of a ship. And politicians such as Lamont also have a hand in Treasury forecasts.
"That is the worst way to use a science" , says Becker. "If economics has any claim to be a science and to belong to the Nobel award structure—and I firmly believe that it does—then economists should avoid political propaganda and convey to the public some flavor of the scientific quality of economics. The government should stop interfering and let its specialists apply their programs, which embody years of experience, as tools to solve the problem of how to make the economy healthy".
From the text we can learn that the Britain’s economic situation is ______.
选项
A、as satisfactory as never
B、far from encouraging
C、on the verge of collapse
D、on the eve of a leap
答案
B
解析
推理题。第一段最后指出:任何稍微关注失业数字或抵押的人都知道,财政部长一再重申的“经济复苏即将来临”的说法并不真实。这说明:英国的经济状况很不乐观。B符合题意,为正确选项。D与此意相反;A和C都属于not given类型。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/07p4777K
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
Inanidealworld,thenation’seliteschoolswouldenrollthemostqualifiedstudents.Butthat’snothowit(1)_____.Applican
IntheUnitedStates,thefirstday-nurserywasopenedin1854.Nurserieswereestablishedinvariousareasduringthe(1)_____
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatl
Productivityistheyardstickbywhichsocioeconomicrevolutionsaremeasured.Plowsinitiatedtheagrarianrevolutionbygreatl
Thepurposeofthispassageis______.Theresearchershaveconductedanexperimenttoprovethatpeoplewillactinemergencies
America’scentralbanksentaclearmessagethisweek.Forthesecondconsecutivemeeting,theFederalOpenMarketCommittee,th
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe(1)_____statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalac
America’sFederalReservecutinterestratesbyanotherquarter-point,to3.75%.WallStreet,whichhadbeen(1)_____forasixt
Backinthe16thcentury,politicalplayswereallaboutmen.Notnow.Forsometime,Americanfemaleplaywrightshavefollowed
随机试题
男性患者,20岁。1周前外出遇雨,不久“感冒”,随后畏寒、发热、咳嗽、胸膜剧烈疼痛、咳铁锈色痰。查体:体温37℃,右肺呼吸音稍低。血白细胞17×109/L,中性粒细胞89%,胸片见左上肺大片致密影。患者最可能患的疾病是什么?该病原体形态有何特征?
26岁已婚妇女,人工流产术后1周,发热4天,右下腹痛3天,追问病史有术后性交史。查体:体温39℃,血压90/60mmHg,心率102次/分,右下腹有压痛、反跳痛,妇科检查:阴道有粉红色少量液体,宫颈举痛(+),宫口闭,子宫正常大,压痛明显,双附件稍增厚,压
成分离心机离心转速的注意事项是检查人员要注意安全,转速仪的测量距离为
在进行地基基础设计时,哪些级别的建筑需要验算地基变形?
关于尾矿的错误说法的是()。
新办小型商贸批发企业申请一般纳税人资格认定的条件之一是必须自税务登记之日起( )。
假定刘先生当前投资某项目,期限为3年。第一年年初投资100000元,第二年年初又追加投资50000元,年要求回报率为10%,那么他在3年内每年末至少收回()元才是盈利的。
在研发过程中,科研机构和人员不仅需要大型仪器设备,也需要文献、数据、实验动物及其组织样本库等资源。一个调研课题的统计表明,各方对科技文献和数据的需求居于首位。目前这些重要资源大量沉淀在高校和研究院所,需要使用它们的单位(尤其是企业)无法________。这
无论“大腐败”还是“小腐败”,人民群众都深恶痛绝,领导干部都应时刻__________。对“小腐败”姑息纵容,就会产生“一窗不补,百窗必破”的“破窗效应”;对“小腐败”出招__________,则是预防腐败、反腐倡廉取得实际成效的关键。依次填入画横线部分
ChildrenarebeingaskedtoorganizeweddingsfortheirparentsaspartofaBBCdrivetoreflectmodernBritain.Traditionally,
最新回复
(
0
)