首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the expe
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the expe
admin
2011-01-10
46
问题
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method?
选项
A、Imagination of the forecaster.
B、Practical knowledge of the forecaster.
C、Necessary amount of information.
D、Degree of difficulty involved in forecasting.
答案
A
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/1QcO777K
本试题收录于:
NAETI中级口译笔试题库外语翻译证书(NAETI)分类
0
NAETI中级口译笔试
外语翻译证书(NAETI)
相关试题推荐
Inthesecondhalfofeachyear,manypowerfulstormsareborninthetropicalAtlanticandCaribbeanseas.Of【C1】______,onlya
Inthesecondhalfofeachyear,manypowerfulstormsareborninthetropicalAtlanticandCaribbeanseas.Of【C1】______,onlya
Mostofthe33newlydiscoveredplanets’giantgasbagsswingsoerraticallythattheycreatehav-oconanysmaller,nearby,lif
IntheUnitedStatesandinmanyothercountriesaroundtheworld,therearefourmainwaysforpeopletobe【C1】______aboutdeve
Theyarebothverydeterminedpeople,sothere’srathera______ofpersonalities.
Thegovernmenthashardlytakenmeasurestocrackdownonthesecrimeswhennewonesoccurred.
Allinall,withoutglobalcooperation,anyeffortstohaveterrorismatbaywouldbeinvain.
Ifresearcherscandetermineexactlywhatiswrongwithpeoplewhosufferfromthiscondition,theymaybeabletosuggesttreat
Thereportercomparesahusbandtoaparticularlytrickymusicalinstrument,onethatawifemustlearntoplay________heradvan
以往几个世纪人口的增长并不能证明人口会无限地直线向上增长直到毁灭的地步。相反地,人口统计史料证明人口的增长完全不是一成不变的。若技术革新的成果开始减少,从250到350年前就在西方开通出现的并且目前还在继续的人口迅速增长可能也会放慢。当然,当前的知识革命也
随机试题
《中国药典》(2010年版)测定维生素E含量的内标物是
Χ线管灯丝加热电流的大小一般是
常温常压下,在空气中为气体的物质是
A.甾体皂苷B.达玛烷型C.齐墩果烷型D.乌苏烷型E.羽扇豆烷型人参皂苷Rb1是
按企业营业的主次分类,企业的收入也可以分为主营业务收入和其他业务收入。建筑业企业的其他业务收入不包括()。
下列各项中不属于企业应收账款成本内容的是()。
企业进行会计核算时需要遵循的基本要求有哪些?
《劳动合同法》对试用期限的规定是,劳动合同期限1年以上不满3年的,试用期不得超过()个月。
简述学生失范行为产生的社会原因。
StatesExperimentWithOut-of-ClassroomLearningAttheendofthismonth,mostofOhio’steenagerswillshakeofftheirsum
最新回复
(
0
)