首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
admin
2014-06-20
82
问题
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there for some time, yet no one heeded them. Exactly 10 years ago, a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM)failed to convince investors that it could repay its debts, thereby bringing the world to the brink of a similar "liquidity crisis" to the one we now see. Disaster was averted then only because regulators managed to put together a multi-billion-dollar bailout package.
LTCM’s collapse was particularly notable because its founders had set great store by their use of statistical models designed to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments. Its fall should have been a wake-up call to banks and their regulatory supervisors that the models were not working as well as hoped—in particular that they were ignoring the risks of extreme events and the connections that send such events reverberating around the financial system. Instead, they carried on using them.
Now that disaster has struck again, some financial risk modelers—the " quants" who have wielded so much influence over modern banking—are saying they know where the gaps in their knowledge are and are promising to fill them. Should we trust them?
Their track record does not inspire confidence. Statistical models have proved almost useless at predicting the killer risks for individual banks, and worse than useless when it comes to risks to the financial system as a whole. The models encouraged bankers to think they were playing a high-stakes card game, when what they were actually doing was more akin to lining up a row of dominoes.
How could so many smart people have gotten it so wrong? One reason is that their faith in their model’s predictive power led them to ignore what was happening in the real world. Finance offers enormous scope for dissembling: almost any failure can be explained away by a judicious choice of language and data. When investors do not behave like the self-interested homo economics that economists suppose them to be, they are described as being "irrationally exuberant" or blinded by panic. An alternative view—that investors are reacting logically in the face of uncertainty—is rarely considered. Similarly, extreme events are described as happening only "once in a century"—even though there is insufficient data on which to base such an assessment.
The quants’ models might successfully predict the movement of markets most of the time, but the bankers who rely on them have failed to realize that the occasions on which the markets deviate from normality are much more important than those when they comply. The events of the past year have driven this home in a spectacular fashion: by some estimates, the banking industry has lost more money in the current crisis than it has made in its entire history.
The statistical models used by LTCM
选项
A、had an influence on the entire financial sector.
B、only dealt with risks within the scope of the fund.
C、were applied to different financial operations.
D、had inherent flaws known to their users.
答案
B
解析
细节题。题目问的是“LTCM使用的数据模型——。”第二段中“its founders had set great store by their use of statistical modelsdesigned to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments”说明他们只注重于自己的投资中固有的风险方面。故选B。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/8yXd777K
本试题收录于:
公共英语五级笔试题库公共英语(PETS)分类
0
公共英语五级笔试
公共英语(PETS)
相关试题推荐
Dr.WilsonandMr.Wanghavemetbefore.
Accordingtothepassage,themassmediapresentuswith______.Theauthorusesthecomparisonwithbuildingacathedraltosh
______hasasmallandcomplexkeyboardandscreen?______mightcarryoutfinancialtransactions?
Answerquestionbyreferringtothefollowingbookreviews.AChangecanbeablessingoracurse,dependingonyourperspec
Thesedayswearesoaccustomedtotelegraphmessages(31)itishardforustoimaginetheexcitementthatwasfeltinthenine
Forsomeeducators,thereisnothingwrongwithfunandgames.AgroupcalledtheEducationArcaderecentlyheldaconference
Insomesocietiesitisthecustomforparentstoarrangethemarriagesoftheirchildren.Oftenthebrideandgroomwillnotbe
Humanviolenceshowsevidenceofbeingalearnedbehaviorinthat______.Theword"allegiance"inthethirdparagraphisclose
Humanviolenceshowsevidenceofbeingalearnedbehaviorinthat______.Whatdoestheauthormeanby,saying"...inlegalsys
Itwasamomentmostbusinessexecutiveswouldpausetosavor:latelastyear,GermansportinggoodspioneerAdidaslearnedthat
随机试题
当生产车间或管理部门领用原材料时,该项原材料的价值需摊入产品的生产成本。
下列不是输血致过敏反应原因的是
A.当归B.茯苓C.芍药D.白术E.柴胡
风险控制制度不健全的证券经营机构不能注册登记为保荐人。()
关于中国的名山,以下描述错误的是()。
2009年某市重点发展行业发展态势良好。电子信息产品制造业、汽车制造业、石油化工及精细化工制造业、精品钢材制造业、成套设备制造业、生物医药制造业等六个重点发展工业行业完成工业总产值11789.46亿元,比上年增长17.9%,占全市规模以上工业总产值的比重达
设A,B为同阶方阵,如果A,B相似,试证A,B的特征多项式相等;
Socialchangeismorelikelytooccurinsocietieswherethereisamixtureofdifferentkindsofpeoplethaninsocietieswhere
TheAustralia-Chinarelationshipisnow,assomeofyouhaveheard,thirtyyearsold,andthirtyyearsagoitisprobablyfairto
A、Ithasbeenfinished.B、Itwillbepublishedthismonth.C、Itcontainsmanydetectivestories.D、Itranksthetopofbestselle
最新回复
(
0
)