In the country of Seligia where asbestos has been used extensively in construction, that use is about to be banned, because the

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问题     In the country of Seligia where asbestos has been used extensively in construction, that use is about to be banned, because the exposure of construction workers to asbestos can cause a certain type of cancer. We can predict that the ban will result in reducing the incidence of that type of cancer in Seligia by as much as 50 percent. It is true that less than 30 percent of the death certificates of Seligians who have died of that cancer have “construction” listed as the deceased’s occupation. The cancer takes about 20 years after exposure to develop, however, and Seligians who have worked in construction commonly turn to less strenuous occupations as they age. Seligian death certificates indicate only the deceased’s last occupation.
    In the argument given, the two highlighted portions play which of the following roles?

选项 A、The first is a prediction that argument seeks to defend; the second presents evidence that if not supplemented would cast doubt on that judgment.
B、The first is a prediction that the argument seeks to defend; the second is a finding, the accuracy of which is disputed by the argument as a whole.
C、The first is a prediction that the argument as a whole rejects; the second presents evidence on which that rejection is based
D、The first is a prediction that the argument as a whole seeks to defend; the second is evidence that the defense can be at best partially successful.
E、The first is a prediction that is cited in order to justify a stated conclusion; the second is a consideration that has been raised against that conclusion.

答案A

解析 第一部分确实是作者所做的预测。第二部分如果没有however之后的补充,又确实会起到反驳作者预测的作用。因此选项A正确。B项分号前正确。第二部分可以认为是一项发现,但这一发现是客观数据,其准确性没有被质疑。C项第一部分是文章所要支持的预测,选项C错误。D项分号前正确。第二部分确实是一个证据,但是这个证据想要直接反驳作者的预测,而无法证明文章后面对作者预测的支持只能成功一部分。E项第一部分是作者的预测,但是前面找不到a stated conclusion,因此选项E不正确。
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