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  3. Predicting the future is risky business for a scientist. It is safe to say, however, that the global AIDS epidemic will get much

Predicting the future is risky business for a scientist. It is safe to say, however, that the global AIDS epidemic will get much

admin2013-06-12  92
问题     Predicting the future is risky business for a scientist. It is safe to say, however, that the global AIDS epidemic will get much worse before it gets any better. Sadly, this modern plague will be with us for several generations, despite major scientific advances.
    As of January 2000, the AIDS epidemic had claimed 15 million lives and left 40 million people living with a viral infection that slowly but relentlessly erodes the immune system. Accounting for more than 3 million deaths in the past year alone, the AIDS virus has become the deadliest microbe in the world. In Africa nearly a dozen countries have a rate higher than 10%, including four southern African nations in which a quarter of the people are infected. This is like condemning 16 000 people each day to a slow and miserable death.
    Fortunately, the AIDS story has not been all gloom and doom. Less than two years after AIDS was recognized, the guilty agent—human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV—was identified. We now know more about HIV than about any other virus, and 14 AIDS drugs have been developed and licensed in the U.S. and Western Europe.
    The epidemic continues to rage, however, in South America, Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. By the year 2025, AIDS will be by far the major killer of young Africans, decreasing life expectancy to as low as 40 years in some countries and single-handedly erasing the public health gains of the past 50 years.
    It is Asia, with its huge population at risk, that will have the biggest impact on the global spread of AIDS. The magnitude of the incidence could range from 100 million to 1 billion, depending largely on what happens in India and China. Four million people have already become HIV-positive in India, and infection is likely to reach several percent in a population of 1 billion. Half a million Chinese are now infected; the path of China’s epidemic, however, is less certain.
    An explosive AIDS epidemic in the U.S. is unlikely.  Instead, HIV infection will continue to plague in about 0.5% of the population. But the complexion of the epidemic will change. New HIV infections will occur predominantly in the underclass, with rates 10 times as high in minority groups. Nevertheless, American patients will live quality lives for decades, thanks to advances in medical research. Dozens of powerful and well-tolerated AIDS drugs will be developed, as will novel means to restore the immune system.
    A cure for AIDS by the year 2025 is not inconceivable. But constrained by economic reality, these therapeutic advances will have only limited benefit outside the U.S. and Western Europe.
As a result of the epidemic of AIDS in Africa, ______.
选项 A、the life span for most of the people has been reduced by 40 years
B、most young people have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus
C、people will have to learn to live with the disease for over 50 years
D、the achievements made in preserving people’s health in the past will be wiped off
答案D
解析 第四段第二句作者说：到2025年艾滋病将成为非洲年轻人的最大杀手，它可以使一些国家人口的平均寿命降到40岁，仅艾滋病一项就会使过去50年在公共健康方面取得的成就化为乌有。
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