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  3. Police statistics have shown that automobile antitheft devices reduce the risk of car theft, but a statistical study of automobi

Police statistics have shown that automobile antitheft devices reduce the risk of car theft, but a statistical study of automobi

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问题 Police statistics have shown that automobile antitheft devices reduce the risk of car theft, but a statistical study of automobile theft by the automobile insurance industry claims that cars equipped with antitheft devices are, paradoxically, more likely to be stolen than cars that are not so equipped: Which one of the following, if true, does the most to resolve the apparent paradox?
选项 A、Owners of stolen cars almost invariably report the theft immediately to the police but tend to delay notifying their insurance company, in the hope that the vehicle will be recovered.
B、Most cars that are stolen are not equipped with antitheft devices, and most cars that are equipped with antitheft devices arc not stolen.
C、The most common automobile antitheft devices are audible alarms, which typically produce ten false alarms for every actual attempted theft.
D、Automobile owners who have particularly theft-prone cars and live in areas of greatest incidence of car theft are those who are most likely to have antitheft devices installed.
E、Most automobile thefts are the work of professional thieves against whose efforts antitheft devices offer scant protection.
答案D
解析 警察局和汽车保险业在防盗装置能否降低汽车被盗的危险性上发生了分歧，要解决它们的分歧就要分析它们的结论成立所依赖的事实。通过简单的分析，我们很容易发现一个人所拥有的汽车越容易被盗，他就越有可能给他的汽车装防盗装置，他把他的汽车投保的可能性也越大。在汽车被盗案发生率较高的地方，人们也倾向于给他们的汽车装防盗装置，这部分人把他们的汽车投保的可能性也大。这也就是说保险公司的统计研究结果具有一定的片面性，5个选项中只有答案(D)指出了这种片面性，因此(D)为正确选项，
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