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  3. The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. Th

The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. Th

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问题     The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. The post-crisis period has produced a multi-speed world, as the major advanced economies—with the notable exception of Germany—struggle with low growth and high unemployment, while the main emerging-market economies have restored growth to pre-crisis levels.
    This divergence is mirrored in public finances. Emerging economies’ debt-to-GDP ratios are trending down toward 40%, while those of advanced economies are trending up toward 100%, on average. Neither Europe nor the United States has put in place credible medium-term plans to stabilize their fiscal positions. The volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate reflects the uncertainty about which side of the Atlantic faces higher risks.
    In Europe, this has led to several ratings downgrades of the sovereign debt of the most distressed countries, accompanied by bouts of contagion spilling over to the euro. More seem likely.
    As for the US, Moody’s recently issued a warning on the country’s sovereign debt in the face of uncertainty about Congress’s willingness to raise the debt ceiling amid highly partisan debate about the deficit. Both issues—the debt ceiling and a credible deficit-reduction plan—remain unresolved.
    Moreover, economic growth in the US is modest, and appears to come mainly from segments of the tradable sector that are exposed to and benefit from emerging-market demand. The non-tradable sector, which created virtually all of the new employment in the two decades prior to the crisis, is stagnating, owing to a shortfall in domestic demand and seriously constrained government budgets. The result is persistent unemployment. Meanwhile, the tradable side is not large enough in competitive terms to take up the slack in growth and employment.
    By contrast, emerging markets’ rapid growth and urbanization are delivering a global investment boom, documented in a recent McKinsey Global Institute study. A likely consequence is that the cost of capital will rise in the next few years, putting pressure on highly leveraged entities, including governments that have grown accustomed to a low interest-rate environment and may not see this shift coming.
    Countries with persistent structural current-account deficits will incur additional external-financing costs, and eventually will reach the limits of leverage. At that point, the weak productivity and competitiveness of their tradable sectors will become clear.
    Adjustments will need to be made. The options are higher investment levels financed by domestic savings, productivity growth, and increased competitiveness, or stagnant real incomes as rebalancing occurs through the exchange-rate mechanism.
    Many of these structural problems were hidden from view before the crisis, thereby delaying both market and policy responses. In the US, excess domestic consumption, based on a debt-fueled asset bubble, helped to sustain employment and growth, though the current account held worrying signs. In several European countries, governments, aided by low interest rates, filled in the gap created by lagging productivity.
Which of the following the rapid growth and urbanization of emerging economies may NOT directly or indirectly lead to ?
选项 A、The growing expense of some countries on financing through exterior channel.
B、The opportunity to increase incomes through exchange-rate mechanism.
C、The overwhelming pressure on entities and countries relying on debt.
D、The manifest of the lack of productive forces and competitive strength.
答案B
解析 属信息推断题。选项A可在第七段第一句中找到，故排除。选项B犯了答非所问的错误，选项B中的内容为第八段中几个调整方式之一，故符合题意。选项C可在第六段第二句找到，增大了举债经营的经济体和部分国家的压力，故排除。选项D则在第七段最后一句中，外部融资成本加大最终导致贸易部门显现出生产力低下和缺乏竞争力的弱点，故选项D排除。
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