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  3. Many changes in the world of business may seem surprising if we are completely blind to the future. But experts say we can see,

Many changes in the world of business may seem surprising if we are completely blind to the future. But experts say we can see,

admin2011-03-14  21
问题     Many changes in the world of business may seem surprising if we are completely blind to the future. But experts say we can see, at least part of it from where we stand. Using chaos theory to understand the interconnectedness of the world—think of the "butterfly effect" —will help us recognize the causes of certain "chance happenings" and be better prepared to cope with them.
    Take Asia’s financial crisis. In the past, companies would have said it was just another random event. "The truth is, many of these seemingly random events can affect their business," says Sanders.
    Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, Sanders says, it’s more important than ever that companies be aware of emerging issues and quickly determine how to respond. But to do so, they need an organic and evolving approach to planning. The old planning model focused on "forecasting" one or a few possible paths of events, while a revolutionary paradigm called "foresighting" allows one to master the situation no matter how the future turns out. According to Sanders, understanding the present is the primary step in gaining insight into the future.
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答案 如果我们对未来一无所知，那么我们对商业界的许多变化，或许就会感到非常惊奇。但是，专家们说，我们可以从我们现在站的角度看到未来的一部分。应用混沌理论来理解商业界的相互关联性——思考一下蝴蝶效应，可以帮助我们认识某些“偶然事件”的成因，以便较好地应付这些事件。 以亚洲金融危机为例子。要是在过去，许多公司就会说：“那是又一个偶然事件。”但桑德斯说：“事实上，许多这些似乎是偶然的事件将会影响这些公司的经营。” 桑德斯说，考虑到全球经济关联性，公司若能意识到突发事件并迅速做出反应，这将比以往任何时候都更为重要。但要做到这一点，在计划方面，他们需要有机的、不断完善的方法。旧的计划模式只限于预测一个或多个可能发生事件的轨迹。一个被称为“深谋远虑”的革命范例，能使我们把握局势，无论未来会演变成什么样。按照桑德斯的观点，了解现在是洞察未来的第一步。
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