首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $55 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago fut
The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $55 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago fut
admin
2010-05-14
59
问题
The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $55 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago futures contracts predicted today’s price would be $25. A second is that the economy has grown less vulnerable to oil "shocks". Compared with 1973, we now use almost 50 percent less energy for each dollar of output. New industries (software, theme parks) need less than the old (steel, chemicals). But the largest lesson is depressingly familiar. Americans won’t think realistically about oil. We consider cheap fuel a birthright, and when we don’t get it, we whine--rather than ask why or what we should do.
If prices rise, we blame a conspiracy of greedy oil companies, OPEC or someone. The reality is usually messier. Energy economist Philip Verleger Jr. attributes the present price nm-up to massive miscalculation. Oil companies and OPEC underestimated global demand, particularly from China. Since 2001 China’s oil use has jumped 36 percent. This error led OPEC and companies to underinvest in new production capacity, he says. In 2002 the world had 5 million barrels a day of surplus production capacity; now it has little. Unexpected supply interruptions (sabotage in Iraq, civil war in Nigeria) boost prices.
Verleger says prices could go to $60 next year or even $80 if adverse supply conditions persist. No one really knows. Analyst Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank thinks prices may retreat to the low $30s in 2005. A slowing Chinese economy could weaken demand. But the uncertainties cannot obscure two stubborn realities. First, world oil production can’t rise forevers dwindling reserves will someday cause declines. And, second, barring miraculous discoveries, more will come from unstable regions--especially the Middle East.
We need to face these realities~ neither George Bush nor John Kerry does. Their energy plans are rival fantasies. Kerry pledges to make us "independent" of Middle East oil, mainly through conservation and an emphasis on "renewable" fuels (biomass, solar, wind). Richard Nixon was the first president to promise energy "independence". It couldn’t happen then-- and can’t now. The United States imports about 60 percent of its oil. A fifth of imports come from the Persian Gulf. Even if we eliminated Persian Gulf imports, we’d still be vulnerable. Oil scarcities and prices are transmitted worldwide. The global economy--on which we depend--remains hugely in need of Persian Gulf oil.
Bushes pitch is that we can produce our way out of trouble. No such luck. Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, with possible reserves of 10 billion barrels, might provide 1 million barrels a day, or 5 percent of present U.S. demand. Fine. But the practical effect would be to offset some drop in production elsewhere. American oil output peaked in 1970; it’s down 34 percent since then.
A groundbreaking study from the consulting company PFC Energy illuminates our predicament. The world now uses 82 million barrels of oil a day; that’s 30 billion barrels a year. To estimate future production, the study examined historical production and discovery patterns in all the world’s oil fields. The conclusion.. The world already uses about 12 billion more barrels a year than it finds. "In almost every mature oil basin, the world has been producing more than it’s finding for close to 20 years," says PFC’s Mike Rodgers. That can’t continue indefinitely.
The study is no doomsday exercise. Rodgers says that future discovery and recovery rates could be better or worsen-than assumed. With present rates, he expects global oil supply to peak before 2020 at about 100 million barrels a day. Whatever happens, the world will probably depend more on two shaky regions: the Persian Gulf and the former Soviet Union. The Gulf now supplies a quarter of the world’s oil; PFC projects that to rise to a third in a decade.
Although the future is hazy, what we ought to do isn’t. We need to dampen oil use, expand production and--if oil prices recede--significantly increase the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These steps can’ t end our vulnerability to global price surges or the effects of a catastrophic loss of oil supplies from, say, war or terrorism. But they can reduce it. Most important, Americans should curb gasoline use. The Energy Information Administration reports the following: Gasoline represents about 45 percent of U. S. oil demand; since 1991 the explosion of SUVs and light trucks has meant no gains in average fuel mileage efficiency; and over the same period, typical drivers travel almost 1,000 miles more annually:
We should be promoting fuel-efficient vehicles, particularly "hybrids". Combining gasoline and electric power, they get 20 percent to 40 percent better mileage than conventional vehicles, says David Greene of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. They also cost from $3,000 to $4,000 more than conventional cars, he says, mainly because they have two power sources. But Greene plausibly asserts that if production expanded, the cost gap would shrink. The way to expand demand would be to adopt a gasoline tax of $1 to $2 a gallon. Americans would know that fuel prices would stay high. They’d have reason to economize.
Of course, a fuel tax is a political showstopper. It isn’t in Bush’s or Kerry’s plan. They promote hydrogen-powered cars. These sound great but--given the technical obstacles-- won’t become widespread for many years, if ever. This captures our choice: taking modestly unpleasant preventive steps; or running greater future risks by clinging to our fantasies. History favors our fantasies.
This passage is most probably written by someone who works for a______.
选项
A、newspaper
B、consulting firm
C、research institute
D、government agency
答案
A
解析
本文为报刊文章。这种文章的主要特点包括:语言新颖活泼但通俗易懂、文字简洁但信息量大、报道客观全面、情感词语少。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/yslO777K
0
专业英语八级
相关试题推荐
Publicisinghisimminentnewseriesabouttheevolutionofanimals,SirDavidAttenboroughsaidthisweekthathethoughtaredu
Mytopictodayishowtoaddresstheproblemofhungerandstarvationwhichstillexistsinmanypartsoftheworld【C1】______st
AlongWashingtonState’srockycoastlineandinlandwaters,thered-and-whitepatrolboatsandhelicoptersoftheUnitedStates
A、Theassassinationofthepopularformerprimeministermonthsago.B、TheUnitedStatesisencouragingdemocracybychallenging
"It’stoughtomakepredictions,especiallyaboutthefuture,"saidthatgreatbaseball-playingphilosopher,YogiBerra.Andyet
A、Byallowingthetransferredemployeetoworkonflextimesoastotakecareofthefamily.B、Byprovidingextraallowanceand
TheancientChineseboardgameGowasinventedlongbeforetherewasanywritingtorecorditsrules.Agamefromtheimpossibly
A、StudentslearningFnglishintheirhomecountryshouldstudyabroad.B、ImmersionisoneoftheEnglish-languageskillsforfor
Mobilegadgetslikemobilephones,MP3playersandPDAsaremoreandmorepopularnow.Itisnolongerunusualforapersontoo
你知道中国最有名的人是谁?提起此人,人人皆晓,处处闻名。他姓差,名不多,是各省各县各村人氏。你一定见过他,一定听过别人谈起他。差不多先生的名字天天挂在大冢的口头,因为他是中国全国人的代表。差不多先生的相貌和你和我都差不多。他有一双眼睛,
随机试题
谈谈如何在日常生活中,运用启发式策略来解决问题。
申屠丞相嘉者,梁人,从高帝击项籍,迁为队率。从击黥布军,为都尉。孝文时,嘉迁为御史大夫。张苍免相,孝文帝欲用皇后弟窦广国为丞相,日:“恐天下以吾私广国。”广国贤有行,故欲相之,念久之不可,而高帝时大臣又皆多死,馀见无可者,乃以御史大夫嘉为丞相,因故邑封为安
“与其在悬崖上展览千年/不如在爱人肩头痛哭一晚”是全诗的主旨所在,也是全诗抒情的最高峰。()
下列不宜使用皮下埋植避孕的是
医学技术鉴定组织负责对下列问题有异议的医学技术鉴定
高血压、心脏病、肾脏病、水肿患者应在医师指导下服用的药物是()
农民金虎因购买农用拖拉机向邻村王某借款5000元,约定还款期为1年。金某的弟弟金豹自愿以自己的一头耕牛为该笔借款提供质押担保,并与王某签订了书面质押合同。请回答下列问题:
[2008年,第77题]盛水容器a和b的上方密封,测压管水面位置如图6.1-3所示,其底部压强分别Pa和Pb,若两容器内水深相等,则Pa与Pb的关系为()。
根据《标准施工招标文件》,关于缺陷责任期内缺陷责任的表述正确的是()。
2013年12月,国家电网公司召开“安全日”活动。活动以学习习近平总书记重要指示精神、贯彻公司安全生产紧急电视电话会议要求、开展隐患大排查为主要内容,各部门、各分部、各单位结合实际开展专题学习,进一步增强责任意识、忧患意识、风险意识。活动学习贯彻落实习近平
最新回复
(
0
)