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  3. The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of r

The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of r

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问题     The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of risks for financial markets. The great new risks now facing the US economy center on monetary policy and the oil market. The current federal funds interest rate of only 1.75 percent has clearly become unsustainable in view of the economy’ s resilience. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points during the second quarter and could increase short-term interest rates to at least 3 percent before the autumn--the level they were at before September 11.
    Such tightening would probably cause refinancing to slump to about $ 300 billion at annual rates late this year, which would eliminate capital gains as a prop for consumer spending. Rising interest rates could also damp the rally likely to occur in the equity market as corporate profits recover. If investment spending fails to revive, the economy’ s annual growth rate could slide back to the 2- 3 percent.
    The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $ 35-- $ 40 a bar rel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2002 and early 2003 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.
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答案 今年第一季度美国经济如此壮观的复苏，正给金融市场带来一系列新的风险。美国经济面临的这些巨大的新风险集中来自于货币政策和石油市场。从经济恢复力来看，目前只有百分之1.75的联邦利率已明显无法持续。美联储决定将在第二季度提升利率至少0.25个百分点，并会在秋季前将短期利率提升至3%以上——这也是美国在9.11之前的利率水平。 这样的紧缩政策可能会导致今年年底再集资水平跌至3/亿/年，这将使资本收益在消费性支出中的支柱作用荡然无存。利率的提高也将抑制企业利润好转下股票市场的回升。如果投资支出没能复原，整个经济的年增长率将回落至2—3%。 石油价格也是一大风险，这主要是因为布什政府表现出来的攻打伊拉克的坚决态度。战争的可能性可以轻而易举地将油价推回到35-40美元一桶，而且这一持续就会是几个月，结果将是在消费性支出和公司利润头上新加了一大笔税赋。货币紧缩政策与油价急剧攀升的前景暗示着2002年底和2003年初可能是美国经济的一大波动期。
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