首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of r
The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of r
admin
2011-01-26
75
问题
The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of risks for financial markets. The great new risks now facing the US economy center on monetary policy and the oil market. The current federal funds interest rate of only 1.75 percent has clearly become unsustainable in view of the economy’ s resilience. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points during the second quarter and could increase short-term interest rates to at least 3 percent before the autumn--the level they were at before September 11.
Such tightening would probably cause refinancing to slump to about $ 300 billion at annual rates late this year, which would eliminate capital gains as a prop for consumer spending. Rising interest rates could also damp the rally likely to occur in the equity market as corporate profits recover. If investment spending fails to revive, the economy’ s annual growth rate could slide back to the 2- 3 percent.
The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $ 35-- $ 40 a bar rel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2002 and early 2003 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.
选项
答案
今年第一季度美国经济如此壮观的复苏,正给金融市场带来一系列新的风险。美国经济面临的这些巨大的新风险集中来自于货币政策和石油市场。从经济恢复力来看,目前只有百分之1.75的联邦利率已明显无法持续。美联储决定将在第二季度提升利率至少0.25个百分点,并会在秋季前将短期利率提升至3%以上——这也是美国在9.11之前的利率水平。 这样的紧缩政策可能会导致今年年底再集资水平跌至3/亿/年,这将使资本收益在消费性支出中的支柱作用荡然无存。利率的提高也将抑制企业利润好转下股票市场的回升。如果投资支出没能复原,整个经济的年增长率将回落至2—3%。 石油价格也是一大风险,这主要是因为布什政府表现出来的攻打伊拉克的坚决态度。战争的可能性可以轻而易举地将油价推回到35-40美元一桶,而且这一持续就会是几个月,结果将是在消费性支出和公司利润头上新加了一大笔税赋。货币紧缩政策与油价急剧攀升的前景暗示着2002年底和2003年初可能是美国经济的一大波动期。
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/59BO777K
0
考博英语
相关试题推荐
•YouaregoingtoattendanengineeringexhibitioninFrankfurtsoon.•Writeamemotoyourassistant:explainingwhyyou
•Readthearticlebelowaboutworkingindifferentsizedcompanies.•Aresentences16-22ontheoppositepage’Right’or’Wrong’
SouthernNewspaperGroup-titlesincludetheDailyRecord
Mycorrhizalfungiinfectmoreplantsthandoanyotherfungiandarenecessaryformanyplantstothrive,buttheyhaveescaped
Ahundredyearsagoitwasassumedandscientifically"proved"byeconomiststhatthelawsofsocietymakeitnecessarytohave
Ahundredyearsagoitwasassumedandscientifically"proved"byeconomiststhatthelawsofsocietymakeitnecessarytohave
Perhapsallsocieties(aresignificantlymoreadvanced)thanourownhaveachievedaneffectivepersonalimmortalityandloseth
近年以至今后数年,对中国经济体制改革影响最大的事情,莫过于加入世界贸易组织。特别是近两年的各项改革,几乎无一不是在适应世贸组织的要求,且改革的步伐明显加快,改革也开始越来越深入到计划经济的最核心领域。因而,可以说,中国经济体制在经过了20多年的渐进改革之后
中国的饮食方式正在发生许多变化。众所周知,中国的饮食文化具有悠久的历史。人们采用肉、蔬菜、豆制品等能做出各种美味食品,但往往耗时多。这一点与快节奏的现代社会极不相符。如今我们有了许多不同的选择:除传统家常菜外,还有营养保健配餐和方便可口的快餐食品。由于午休
实行改革开放以来改变了过去封闭半封闭状态,提高了我国经济水平。
随机试题
男,64岁,前胸部肿胀疼痛3月余,质硬,局部压痛,无发热。血常规检查示贫血。为进一步明确诊断,还应选择或提供下列何种检查
患者,女性,45岁,症见带下色白,质稀无臭,面色苍白,倦怠便溏,舌淡苔白,脉缓。治宜选用
张某、王某和刘某签订合伙协议,设立合伙企业,约定张某于企业成立之日起3个月内出资10万元,企业成立后,张某拒绝出资,以下说法正确的是:()
24号元素Cr的基态原子价层电子排布式是:
在建设工程投资控制的任务中,不属工料测量师在立约前的任务的是( )。
在个人住房贷款中,保证担保的法律风险表现为()。
战略联盟的每个成员企业都拥有自己的特定优势,通过相互之间的扬长避短。可有效降低交易成本,产生“1+1>2”的协同效应。同时,每个成员企业都能获得与其在联盟中的地位和对联盟的贡献相对应的收益。这种收益仅依靠企业自身的力量将难以获取。这体现的是联盟企业之间协作
(2014年)2013年3月18日,甲机械公司与乙融资租赁公司接洽融资租赁某型号数控机床事宜,同年4月1日,乙按照甲的要求与丙精密设备公司签订了购买1台某型号数控机床的买卖合同。丁以乙的保证人身份在该买卖合同上签字,但合同中并没有保证条款,丙和丁亦未另行签
我国的小学产生于()时期。
SDH是________网络的略写。
最新回复
(
0
)