首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $ 350 an ounce, dramatically lower than what most expe
A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $ 350 an ounce, dramatically lower than what most expe
admin
2016-01-29
51
问题
A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $ 350 an ounce, dramatically lower than what most experts are currently calling for. But Claude Erb’s prediction might have merit. Back in 2012, Erb, a former commodities trader at TCW Group, co-authored a landmark research paper with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey that was early to predict gold’s downfall. At the time, gold was fetching north of $ 1,600 an ounce. Now it’s trading below $ 1,100.
The paper used historical analysis to show that if gold is an inflation hedge—as many people believe-------then it’s extremely expensive at current levels. Erb and Harvey’s research suggests that gold’s fair value is about $ 825 an ounce. That would represent about a 25% decline from today’s price. But gold tends to move to extremes before reverting back to its fair value. Gold prices, like stock and bond prices, are influenced by excessive levels of investor optimism and pessimism. " Markets rarely trade at ’ fair value,’ rather they tend to
overshoot
," Erb said. Their research suggests gold could tumble to a-bout $ 350 an ounce before it goes back to fair values. Plunging that low would translate to an 80% crash from gold’s peak price in late 2011.
Erb and Harvey’s research is not concrete. Even if they’re right that gold is overvalued, no one can say for sure when prices will correct. They could surge even higher before reversing course. In the past, the peak-to-trough cycle has lasted as long as 20 years. It’s a long-term view based on the following hypothesis: Gold prices are driven by inflation, just like stocks are driven mainly by corporate profits.
That belief in gold as the ultimate store of value is why prices spiked after the Great Recession. Investors feared the Federal Reserve’s extremely low interest rates would unleash a wave of inflation and gold would protect them. Erb and Harvey argue that if gold maintains its purchasing power over time, it stands to reason that its fair value, or inflation-adjusted price, should be constant in the long run. The authors used historical prices and a common measure of inflation—the consumer price index—to determine where that fair value lies.
Bob Alderman, head of wealth management at Gold Bullion International, called Erb and Harvey " smart guys with a theory," but said it’s important to remember that not long ago, some observers were calling for gold to hit $5,000. "Clearly, it didn’t go there," Alderman said.
There are signs that the smart money may be moving closer towards Erb and Harvey’s view. Big Wall Street banks are slashing their gold price targets. Goldman Sachs(GS), one of the biggest cheerleaders of the commodities super cycle, recently predicted gold could tumble below $ 1,000 for the first time since 2009.
What is the main idea of this passage?
选项
A、Gold prices are very volatile.
B、Gold prices may drop further.
C、Gold is a perfect inflation hedge.
D、Predicting gold prices is very difficult.
答案
B
解析
主旨题。开头就说出这个观点,最后又提到华尔街也有迹象表明这种趋势,故[B]为正确答案。[A]:“价格波动大”在文中确定提到了,但是这不是核心观点,故排除。[C]:是否是“完美”的,不得而知,故排除。[D]:预计金价非常困难,这是事实,但不是主旨;如果这是主旨,就会谈曾经的预计失误之类的东西,故排除。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/L0sZ777K
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
Whatsortofglassyoudrinkfrompredictshowfastyoudrink."Wouldyoulikethatinastraightorajug,sir?"wasonceacom
Thetaxmanjustcan’tseemtogetabreakthesedays.Billion-dollarprivate-equitycompaniesarefightingagainstPresidentOb
Thetaxmanjustcan’tseemtogetabreakthesedays.Billion-dollarprivate-equitycompaniesarefightingagainstPresidentOb
Cyberattacksseemtobegettingmoresophisticatedbythehour.Afewweeksagomal-wareknownasZeroDaywasfoundtohaveex
Youprobablyalreadyknowthataviselikepressureinthechestisthemostcommonphysicalsignofaheartattack.Youmayeven
Youngpeopleoftenwonderatthelargenumberofemployerswhodonotrespondtotheirapplicationsforjobs.Theysaythatdesp
Manywilldoubttobaccoindustryclaimsthatitissharpeningitssciencetoevaluate"healthiercigarettes".Butthat’swhatwi
Manywilldoubttobaccoindustryclaimsthatitissharpeningitssciencetoevaluate"healthiercigarettes".Butthat’swhatwi
Manywilldoubttobaccoindustryclaimsthatitissharpeningitssciencetoevaluate"healthiercigarettes".Butthat’swhatwi
WomenhavebeendrivingyellowcabsinNewYorksincethe1940s,but99%ofdriversaremale.Evenamongdriversofcarsbooked
随机试题
患儿男性,4个月,足月顺产,出生体重3.1kg,纯母乳喂养,夜啼、汗多1个月,头发脱落。查体:一般情况好,体重7.0kg,身长63.0cm,前囟2.5cm×2.5cm,枕秃,乳牙未萌出,心肺听诊无殊,腹平软。如该就诊医院不能检查血清25-(OH)-D3
长期劳动锻炼后产生全身适应性变化可以使
二陈汤主治
夏季施工混凝土,一般需要加入()等外加剂。
案例一【背景资料】某施工单位承建城镇道路改扩建工程,全长2km,工程项目主要包括:(1)原机动车道的旧水泥混凝土路面加铺沥青混凝土面层;(2)原机动车道两侧加宽、新建非机动车道和人行道;(3)新建人行天桥一座,人行天桥桩基共设计12根,为人工
甲、乙、丙三位自然人出资设立千枫有限责任公司(下称“千枫公司")。公司注册资本800万元,其中,甲以货币出资400万元,乙以商标作价出资240万元,丙以设备出资160万元。公司成立后,发现股东丙的设备出资实际价值为50万元。公司不设董事会和监事会,丙为公司
按照G.W.奥尔波特的观点,社会存在的形式包括()
幼儿园晨间检查环节中的“问”是指保健医生向小朋友问好。()
李某因诈骗罪被判处有期徒刑2年,缓刑3年。缓刑考验期满后,司法机关查获李某在缓刑考验期内,曾经伙同他人盗窃财物价值达3万元,对李某应当如何处理?()
HowdoesthemangotoLondon?
最新回复
(
0
)