首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $ 350 an ounce, dramatically lower than what most expe
A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $ 350 an ounce, dramatically lower than what most expe
admin
2016-01-29
17
问题
A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $ 350 an ounce, dramatically lower than what most experts are currently calling for. But Claude Erb’s prediction might have merit. Back in 2012, Erb, a former commodities trader at TCW Group, co-authored a landmark research paper with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey that was early to predict gold’s downfall. At the time, gold was fetching north of $ 1,600 an ounce. Now it’s trading below $ 1,100.
The paper used historical analysis to show that if gold is an inflation hedge—as many people believe-------then it’s extremely expensive at current levels. Erb and Harvey’s research suggests that gold’s fair value is about $ 825 an ounce. That would represent about a 25% decline from today’s price. But gold tends to move to extremes before reverting back to its fair value. Gold prices, like stock and bond prices, are influenced by excessive levels of investor optimism and pessimism. " Markets rarely trade at ’ fair value,’ rather they tend to
overshoot
," Erb said. Their research suggests gold could tumble to a-bout $ 350 an ounce before it goes back to fair values. Plunging that low would translate to an 80% crash from gold’s peak price in late 2011.
Erb and Harvey’s research is not concrete. Even if they’re right that gold is overvalued, no one can say for sure when prices will correct. They could surge even higher before reversing course. In the past, the peak-to-trough cycle has lasted as long as 20 years. It’s a long-term view based on the following hypothesis: Gold prices are driven by inflation, just like stocks are driven mainly by corporate profits.
That belief in gold as the ultimate store of value is why prices spiked after the Great Recession. Investors feared the Federal Reserve’s extremely low interest rates would unleash a wave of inflation and gold would protect them. Erb and Harvey argue that if gold maintains its purchasing power over time, it stands to reason that its fair value, or inflation-adjusted price, should be constant in the long run. The authors used historical prices and a common measure of inflation—the consumer price index—to determine where that fair value lies.
Bob Alderman, head of wealth management at Gold Bullion International, called Erb and Harvey " smart guys with a theory," but said it’s important to remember that not long ago, some observers were calling for gold to hit $5,000. "Clearly, it didn’t go there," Alderman said.
There are signs that the smart money may be moving closer towards Erb and Harvey’s view. Big Wall Street banks are slashing their gold price targets. Goldman Sachs(GS), one of the biggest cheerleaders of the commodities super cycle, recently predicted gold could tumble below $ 1,000 for the first time since 2009.
What is the main idea of this passage?
选项
A、Gold prices are very volatile.
B、Gold prices may drop further.
C、Gold is a perfect inflation hedge.
D、Predicting gold prices is very difficult.
答案
B
解析
主旨题。开头就说出这个观点,最后又提到华尔街也有迹象表明这种趋势,故[B]为正确答案。[A]:“价格波动大”在文中确定提到了,但是这不是核心观点,故排除。[C]:是否是“完美”的,不得而知,故排除。[D]:预计金价非常困难,这是事实,但不是主旨;如果这是主旨,就会谈曾经的预计失误之类的东西,故排除。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/L0sZ777K
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
Whatsortofglassyoudrinkfrompredictshowfastyoudrink."Wouldyoulikethatinastraightorajug,sir?"wasonceacom
SalesofexistinghomesrosebythelargestamountinmorethanfiveyearsinSeptember.Butanalystscautionedagainstreading
SalesofexistinghomesrosebythelargestamountinmorethanfiveyearsinSeptember.Butanalystscautionedagainstreading
Thetaxmanjustcan’tseemtogetabreakthesedays.Billion-dollarprivate-equitycompaniesarefightingagainstPresidentOb
By2010theEuropeanCommissionpredictstranscontinentalfreighttrafficwillhaverisen50percentasaresultofEuropeanexp
Gettinglaidoffaffectsnotonlyone’seconomicwell-being,italsocurtailsone’sinvolvementincommunityandsocialactiviti
Manywilldoubttobaccoindustryclaimsthatitissharpeningitssciencetoevaluate"healthiercigarettes".Butthat’swhatwi
WomenhavebeendrivingyellowcabsinNewYorksincethe1940s,but99%ofdriversaremale.Evenamongdriversofcarsbooked
WomenhavebeendrivingyellowcabsinNewYorksincethe1940s,but99%ofdriversaremale.Evenamongdriversofcarsbooked
随机试题
简支梁AB受集度为q均布载荷作用,如图所示,作此梁的剪力图和弯矩图。
A.生长期中的骺板因变性而发生骨骺早期融合,骨端增粗,骨干变短,关节面凹凸不平B.关节周围软组织阴影肿大,骨组织有不规则的破坏区,同时有骨膜反应及骨质增生,关节间隙变窄、变形C.区域性骨质疏松,软骨下骨缺损和关节间隙变窄D.关节周围软组织阴影肿大,骨
A.皮B.肉C.筋D.骨E.脉
数学曲线拟合法主要有()。
某装饰公司购入一台抛光设备,原价16万元,预计使用年限为8年,预计净残值率为3%,根据企业会计准则及其相关规定,按双倍余额递减法计提折旧,该抛光设备第二年的折旧率为()。
根据《证券投资基金法》的规定,下列属于封闭式基金上市条件的有()。
土地增值税由()的税务机关负责征收。
灾后重建指( )。
某教师在八年级开放名著导读课,引导学生围绕主题“成长的岁月"展开阅读。下列作品不合适的是()。
日常生活是实施幼儿德育最基本的途径。()
最新回复
(
0
)