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  3. In the following article, some sentences have been removed. For questions 1 — 5, choose the most suitable one from the list A—G

In the following article, some sentences have been removed. For questions 1 — 5, choose the most suitable one from the list A—G

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问题 In the following article, some sentences have been removed. For questions 1 — 5, choose the most suitable one from the list A—G to fit into each of the numbered blank. There are two extra choices which you do not need to use.
    Are you better than average as a driver? I know I am. I’ll bet 90 percent of you think you are, too, because this is the well-documented phenomenon known as the above-average effect, part of the psychology of optimism.
    【R1】______. But optimism can slide dangerously into overoptimism.
    Research shows that chief financial officers, for example, were grossly overconfident about their ability to forecast the market when tested by Duke University professors who collected 11,600 CFO forecasts and matched them to market outcomes and found a correlation of less than zero. 【R2】______.
    Isn’t optimistic risk taking integral to building a successful business? Yes, to a point. 【R3】______.
    For example, only 35 percent of small businesses survive in the U. S. When surveyed, however, 81 percent of entrepreneurs assessed their odds of success at 70 percent, and 33 percent of them went so far as to put their chances at 100 percent. So what? 【R4】______. Failure may not be an option in the mind of an entrepreneur, but it is all too frequent in reality. High-risk-taking entrepreneurs override such loss aversion, a phenomenon most of us succumb to—in which losses hurt twice as much as gains feel good—that we developed in our evolutionary environment of scarcity and uncertainty.
【R5】______.
    Think Steve Jobs, whose pervasive optimistic bias was channeled through something a co-worker called Jobs’s "reality distortion field. " According to his biographer Walter Isaacson, "at the root of the reality distortion was Jobs’s belief that the rules didn’t apply to him.... He had the sense that he was special, a chosen one, an enlightened one. " Jobs’s optimism changed into a reality-distorting will to power over rules that applied only to others and was reflected in numerous ways. But there was one reality Jobs’s distortion field optimism could not completely bend to his will; cancer. After he was diagnosed with a treatable form of cancer, Jobs initially refused surgery. "I really didn’t want them to open up my body, so I tried to see if a few other things would work," he admitted to Isaacson. The few other treatments he had tried didn’t work.
    Out of this heroic tragedy a lesson emerges—reality must take precedence over willful optimism. Nature cannot be distorted.
[A]One of the benefits of an optimistic temperament is that it encourages persistence in the face of obstacles. But "pervasive optimistic bias" can be detrimental: Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be.
[B]According to psychologist Daniel Kahneman, in his 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow, "people tend to be overly optimistic about their relative standing on any activity in which they do moderately well. "
[C]It may be neither troubling nor surprising that CFOs can’t accurately predict the stock market’s path. If they could, they’d be running hedge funds and making billions. What is troubling, though, is that as a group, many of these executives apparently don’t realize that they lack forecasting ability.
[D]This loss-aversion override by those with pervasive optimistic bias seems to work because of what I call biographical selection bias: the few entrepreneurs who succeed spectacularly have biographies(and autobiographies), whereas the many who fail do not.
[E]Such confidence can be costly. The study of CFOs showed that those who were most confident and optimistic about the S&P index were also overconfident and optimistic about the prospects of their own firm, which went on to take more risk than others.
[F]Loss aversion grips many organisations. Far too often, new ideas are turned down because they will probably fail, without seriously asking whether the small chance of meaningful success might outweigh an inexpensive failure - even if that failure is highly likely.
[G]In a Canadian study, 47 percent of inventors participating in the Inventor’s Assistance Program, in which they paid for objective evaluations of their invention on 37 criteria, continued development efforts even after being told that their project was hopeless, and on average these persistent(or obstinate)individuals doubled their initial losses before giving up.
【R2】
选项
答案E
解析 本题空格出现在第三段后半部分。该段前半部分列举研究发现指出CFO们往往高估自身对市场的预测能力，过于自信。[E]选项指出过于自信的CFO会使公司陷入更大的风险当中，与前文衔接顺畅。选项中的Such confidence、most confident and optimistic about．．．与上文were grossly overconfident about、can be costly与a correlation of less than zero分别形成呼应，同时，CFOs也复现上文出现的CFO。因此[E]为正确选项。[C]选项出现了CEO与forecasting ability，有较强干扰项，但该选项重在强调CFO预测能力欠缺且不自知，未对第三段前半部分内容有所总结升华，毕竟“过度自信会让人付出代价”才是本段要作出的结论。因此排除该选项。
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