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  3. President Obama’ s recent trip to China reflects a symbiotic relationship at the heart of the global economy: China uses America

President Obama’ s recent trip to China reflects a symbiotic relationship at the heart of the global economy: China uses America

admin2019-07-30  71
问题 President Obama’ s recent trip to China reflects a symbiotic relationship at the heart of the global economy: China uses American spending power to enlarge its private sector, while America uses Chinese lending power to expand its public sector. Yet this arrangement may unravel in a dangerous way, and if it does, the most likely culprit will be Chinese economic overcapacity.
Several hundred million Chinese farmers have moved from the countryside to the cities over the last 30 years, in one of the largest, most rapid migrations in history. To help make this work, the Chinese government has subsidized its exporters by pegging the Renminbi at an unnaturally low rate to the dollar. This has supported relatively high-paying export jobs; additional subsidies have included direct credit allocation and preferential treatment for coastal enterprises.
These aren’ t the recommended policies you would find in a basic economics text, but it’ s hard to argue with success. Most important, it has given many more Chinese a stake in the future of their society. Those same subsidies, however, have spurred excess capacity and created a dangerous political, dynamic in which these investments have to be propped up at all cost.
China has been building factories and production capacity in virtually every sector of its economy , but it’ s not clear that the latest round of investments will be profitable anytime soon. Automobiles , steel, semiconductors, cement, aluminum and real estate all show signs of too much capacity. In Shanghai, the central business district appears to have high vacancy rates, yet building continues.
Chinese planners now talk of the need to restrict investment in sectors that are overflowing with unsold products. The global market is no longer strong, and domestic demand was never enough in the first place. Regional officials have an incentive to prop up local enterprises and production statistics, even if that means supporting projects or accounting practices that are not sustainable.
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答案 美国总统奥巴马最近对中国的访问体现了全球经济核心上的共生关系：中国利用美国人民的消费力来壮大其私营企业，而美国利用中国人民的借贷力来扩展其政府控制企业。但是这样的合作或许会以一种危险的方式带来最可能的不良后果，并且如果真的带来后果，那就是中国经济产能过剩。 在中国历史上规模最大，速度最快的一次人口迁移过程中，数亿农民在短短三十年里从农村迁往城市。为使迁移产生最大的经济效应，中国政府通过限定人民币对美元的超低汇率来补贴出口企业。这极好地支持了相对高回报的出口贸易；额外补贴还包括直接信贷配额和沿海企业优惠政策。 在常规经济环境下，这些都并非值得推行的政策。但事实胜于雄辩。最重要的是，这些政策给予了越来越多的中国人在未来社会的一席之地。然而，也正是这些政策，刺激了过剩生产力，带来了一个危险的政治动态环境。在这种环境下，必须不计任何代价对投资进行支持。 中国一直在不停地建造工厂，推动其经济范围内几乎每一个部门的生产力。但是却没人清楚最新一轮的投资是否会马上产生经济效益。汽车，钢铁，半导体，水泥，铝和房地产行业已经显示出了太多的产能过剩。在上海这样一个经济中心城市，居高不下的住房空置率已经很成问题，然而，建房仍在继续。 中国的决策者们现正在讨论限制某些生产过剩部门的投资。国际市场已风光不再，国内市场又自始至终都是供大于求。地方政府一直在鼓励当地企业扩大生产，提高生产数据，即使这意味着支持非可持续发展的项目或做法。
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