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  3. Nor is inflation confined to food any longer: producer prices are creeping up. The PPI for manufactured goods was up 3. 2 percen

Nor is inflation confined to food any longer: producer prices are creeping up. The PPI for manufactured goods was up 3. 2 percen

admin2019-07-30  60
问题     Nor is inflation confined to food any longer: producer prices are creeping up. The PPI for manufactured goods was up 3. 2 percent in October—many steel products rose by more than 10 percent—and the PPI is likely to go even higher when the recent 10 percent hike in the controlled pump price of diesel feeds through. Given the likelihood that more state-controlled prices will have to rise, and given that the official inflation data do not properly capture important prices, such as the cost of education, the real situation may be even worse.
    That is a worry for the rest of the world, used to enjoying the " China price" , a seemingly open-ended deflationary pressure on the world economy. The surge in Chinese inflation since June has barely fed through into export prices yet—but it will. China’ s currency has also been gently appreciating , but so far improvements in productivity have meant that Chinese manufacturers have not needed to raise export prices. If currency appreciation speeds up, that will change.
    The Renminbi may have to rise faster because the tools that China is using to tackle inflation have not worked. Bank reserve requirements were hiked again over the weekend, to 13. 5 percent, but the strain on the banking sector’ s profitability will start to tell. Interest rates have risen repeatedly , but with CPI inflation above 6 percent, and benchmark lending rates only slightly higher, real interest rates are low.
    There must now be a low, but non-zero, probability that China opts for a one-off revaluation of the Renminbi in order to ease its domestic monetary problems. That would be the right move. The adjustment would be easier both for China and for the rest of the world if the Renminbi had not been kept so low for so long. But the pain of unwinding global imbalances will only get worse the longer they are left.
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答案 通货膨胀不再仅限于食品，生产者物价正不断攀升。制成品的出厂价格(PPI)10月份上升3．2％(许多钢铁产品升逾10％)。当近来政府控制下的燃油价格上涨10％的影响蔓延开来，生产者物价指数可能会升至更高水平。鉴于更多政府控制价格有可能不得不上调，同时官方通胀数据没有恰当地计入教育成本等重要价格，实际情况可能更糟。 对享受“中国价格”的世界其他地区来说，这是令人担忧之事。“中国价格”似乎能给世界经济带来无穷的通缩压力。自今年6月以来中国通胀的飙升，迄今尚未反映到出口价格上，但这是迟早的事。人民币汇率也在一直缓慢地升值，但迄今生产率的提高，意味着中国制造商尚无须提高出口价格。如果人民币加速升值，这种情况将会改变。 由于中国用来抑制通货膨胀的工具未能奏效，人民币升值速度可能必须要加快。上周末，(中国央行)再度上调银行存款准备金率至13．5％，这对银行业盈利能力造成的压力将开始显现。中国已多次加息，但由于消费者价格指数(CPI)在6％以上，而基准贷款利率只是稍高一些，因此实际利率仍处于较低水平。 目前，中国可能选择实行人民币汇率一次性升值、以此缓解国内货币问题，这种可能性肯定很小，但并非完全不可能。这将是个正确的做法。如果不是由于人民币汇率在如此长的时间内、保持在如此低的水平上，那么中国和世界上其他国家都会更容易做出调整。可是，日益加剧的全球失衡持续的时间越长，所带来的痛苦只会越大。
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