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  3. 下面你将听到的是一段有关经济发展的讲话。 I would like to comment on the relationship between the growth of the world economy and the role of mac

下面你将听到的是一段有关经济发展的讲话。 I would like to comment on the relationship between the growth of the world economy and the role of mac

admin2012-08-06  49
问题 下面你将听到的是一段有关经济发展的讲话。
    I would like to comment on the relationship between the growth of the world economy and the role of macroeconomic policies. Let me begin with a review of the world economy. The world economy has performed much better than many feared a year ago. Current projections are that global growth will reach 4. 5% this year, the highest rate of the last five years. Once again the major impetus has come from the United States. But the extremely rapid industrialization of China has also stimulated global growth.
    Why has it turned out better than expected? Two broad explanations might be ventured. The first explanation is simply the globalization of market forces. An increasing proportion of economic activity is being governed by the market. In the space of only 15 years, some large command economies have undergone economic reform and become market economies. All this has unleashed a dynamic for growth that remains very strong, especially in China, India and Russia.
    However, the second explanation is not so reassuring. We realize that growth over the past few years has been brought about in no small measure by very expansionary macroeconomic policies. These have included massive fiscal stimulus in the United States, policy interest rates in the major countries held at or near postwar lows for some time, and an unprecedented amount of foreign exchange intervention by monetary authorities in Asia. Unlike structural reforms, the effects of such policy stimulus are only temporary, and the current stance of policies cannot continue indefinitely.
    I think we need to take some effective measures to ensure the stable growth of the world economy. Evidence accumulates that macroeconomic policies will need to be tightened. Without putting what has been achieved at risk, of course. Fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policy all need to be considered in this light.
    Let me start with the industrial world. The US government budget, which was in surplus to the equivalent of 1 % of GDP in 2000, is likely to register a deficit of 5% of GDP this year, a deterioration of the US fiscal position without precedent since the Second World War. Japan’s general government deficit remains at around 8% of GDP. Deficits in some large economies in the euro area are also disturbing. Therefore, early action to curb such deficits is all the more important.
    Although comparatively high unemployment is limiting nominal wage increases and spare capacity in manufacturing worldwide reinforces the competitive pressure on prices, mere are signs that inflation is edging higher. Japan is slowly emerging from deflation. The pace of consumer price inflation in China has increased sharply in recent months, and there is evidence that prices are beginning to rise faster in some other Asian economies.
    I think positively of recent macroeconomic policies that allow exchange rate to appreciate. The eventual movement in exchange rates could be more abrupt than if a greater degree of flexibility had not been allowed earlier. The expansion in domestic liquidity associated with the foreign exchange intervention policy could ultimately lead to inflation. Markets could become too dependent on the continued intervention, and could then be seriously destabilized by even a hint of a change in policy. My last word of advice is this: The stance of macroeconomic policies cannot remain as expansionary if stability is to be maintained in the medium term. We should avoid the two extremes of either putting the entire burden on exchange rates or not allowing exchange rates to move at all.
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答案 我想谈一下全球经济增长与宏观政策作用之间的关系。我先来回顾一下全球经济。全球经济的表现比一年前人们所担心的要好得多了，现在预计全球经济增长今年将达到4.5％，为五年以来的最高水平。美国再一次成为全球经济增长的主动力，但是中国急速的工业化进程也刺激了全球的经济增长。 为什么会比预期要好?有两个解释。第一个解释是市场动力的全球化。现在的经济活动越来越多地由市场调控。仅仅在过去的15年时间内，一些实行计划经济的大国通过重大的经济改革，已转变为市场经济，这些都为增长带来了活力，中国、印度和俄罗斯的增长尤为明显。 但是第二个解释不太令人放心。我们看到全球经济大规模的增长都是在极其扩张的宏观经济政策的指导下实现的，例如：美国采取了大量的财政刺激手段，主要经济体的政策性利率都维持在几乎是二战以来的最低水平，一些亚洲国家对外汇进行了前所未有的干预。与结构性改革不同的是，这些政策的刺激效果只是暂时的，这种政策性的做法是不可能无限制地使用的。 我们应该采取一些有效的措施以确保全球经济稳定增长。越来越多的迹象表明，全球需要采取紧缩的宏观政策，当然了，不能牺牲来之不易的成果。财政政策、货币政策和汇率政策都应该加以考虑。 先说说发达国家吧。美国财政预算赤字曾在2000年超出GDP的1％，今年赤字将达到GDP的5％，财政赤字达到了二战以来最糟糕的程度。日本财政赤字仍然占到其GDP的8％，欧元区许多主要经济体的赤字状况也令人不安。因此尽早采取措施防止财政状况的恶化是十分重要的。 虽然高失业率限制了名义工资的增长，全球制造业产能的过剩也使物价上涨受压，但是我们仍然可以看到一些通货膨胀的迹象。日本也正缓慢地走出通货紧缩阴影，中国消费者物价指数最近几个月来快速上升，有迹象表明其他一些亚洲国家的物价也开始加速上升。 我看好近年来实施的容许货币升值的宏观经济政策。如果不允许更大程度的汇率浮动，汇率的最终变动可能来得更为突然。外汇干预会使国内市场的流动资金增量，从而引起通货膨胀。金融市场会过度依赖持续的外汇干预，任何一个预示政策可能改变的小信号都可能引起市场的大动荡。我的最后忠告是，如果全球经济要在中期保持稳定，宏观政策不能太具扩张性。要避免两种极端，既不能让汇率承担一切，也不能让汇率一成不变。
解析     本文是一篇关于世界经济发展方面的讲话。本文介绍了全球经济的良好态势，并指出了两个原因：一个是市场动力的全球化，另一个是扩张的宏观经济政策的指导。另外，本文还对今后的经济发展提出了一些建议，主要是实施紧缩的宏观政策，并从财政政策、货币政策和汇率政策三方面进行了阐述。
    本文要求应试者掌握一定的世界经济常识和与之相关的专门词汇和表达方式，这依赖于应试者平时的知识积累，是翻译的基本要求。此外，应试者还需要在短时间内，对长难句进行正确的理解、分析、简化或切分，把握好两种语言各自的特色，完成双语间的转换；对于一些较为生僻的短语和表达法。不能死译、硬译，而应该充分联系上下文灵活变通，使译文通顺流畅。
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