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下面你将听到一段有关应对未来经济挑战的讲话。
下面你将听到一段有关应对未来经济挑战的讲话。
admin
2021-04-19
23
问题
下面你将听到一段有关应对未来经济挑战的讲话。
Recent data suggest that headwinds could have slowed momentum even more than we had expected. For example, third-quarter growth has been surprisingly low in emerging market economies such as China, and in the euro area. A no-deal Brexit could further dent confidence. Over the medium term, particularly in advanced economies, we see growth moderating because of adverse demographics and slow productivity. This includes the United States, once the recent fiscal stimulus ends. In addition, in too many countries, excessive inequality is hurting many people—and it also risks undermining public support for reforms that would enhance productivity. What can be done to address these challenges? Three priorities should be highlighted.
First, strengthen our defenses. Policymakers can start by creating more fiscal room for maneuver, so that they have the resources needed to increase support to the economy should growth weaken significantly. This implies undertaking meaningful fiscal consolidation now—especially in high-debt countries such as Italy and in several emerging economies. In terms of monetary policy, the ongoing process of normalization of interest rates in many advanced economies should continue to follow a gradual, well-communicated, and data-dependent path. This is not only in their own interest, but also helps to avoid unnecessary turbulence for others. The good news is that monetary policy normalization indicates relatively strong growth in the advanced economies. However, monetary tightening—combined with rising trade tensions—has heightened external pressures for some emerging economies.
Second, teamwork is the winning tactic. We know that rising trade barriers are ultimately self-defeating for all involved. Thus, it is imperative that all countries steer clear of new trade barriers, while reversing recent tariffs. We have a unique opportunity to improve the global trade system. IMF research suggests that liberalizing trade in services could add about 1/2 percent, or $350 billion, to G20 GDP in the long run. At the same time, concerted actions by individual countries can strengthen their own economies, reduce global imbalances, and boost the global economy. Some examples: Germany could use its fiscal space to strengthen its growth potential by increasing investment and incentivizing labor force participation. The US could help by lowering its fiscal deficit, and China could help by pressing ahead with its economic rebalancing.
Third, pick up the pace. At present, progress is too slow. How can it be accelerated? Most G20 advanced economies could benefit from relaxing product market restrictions to spur innovation and lower prices. Easing access to professional services would be especially important, for example in Japan and many euro area countries. Increasing support for research would be vital in Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom, among others. Most G20 emerging market countries, too, would benefit from product and labor market reforms. Economies such as Brazil, China, India, and Russia would gain by moving away from distortionary taxes. And virtually everywhere, raising women’s participation in the workforce would not only boost growth, but also help to make societies fairer and more inclusive.
These are just some of the measures which, if jointly implemented, could by our calculations increase G20 GDP by 4 percent. During the ten years since the first G20 Leaders’ Summit, the G20’s efforts have been crucial in helping the global economy recover. Yet darker clouds are now returning to the horizon. Tackling this challenge means implementing policies that make sense both nationally and internationally. It also means strengthening the global financial safety net, with a well-equipped and well-resourced IMF at its center, to ensure that we can play our role in helping countries prevent and deal with future crises.
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答案
近期数据显示,不利因素可能使增长势头减缓的程度超出我们的预期。例如,中国等新兴市场经济体以及欧元区的第三季度增长出人意料地缓慢。英国脱欧达不成协议可能进一步削弱信心。从中期看,特别是在发达经济体,不利的人口结构变化和生产率增长缓慢将导致经济增长放缓。在美国,最近的财政刺激一旦结束,也会出现这种情况。此外,在太多的国家,过度的不平等正给许多人造成伤害,同时也有可能破坏公众对能够提高生产率的各项改革给予的支持。怎样才能应对这些挑战?我强调三个优先任务。 第一,加强防御。政策制定者首先可以创造更多的财政回旋空间,以便在经济增长明显减弱时,拥有必要的资源来加强对经济的支持。这意味着,立即着手实施有意义的财政整合,特别是在意大利这类高负债国家和--些新兴经济体中。在货币政策方面,许多发达经济体当前的利率正常化进程应继续沿着循序渐进、有效沟通、数据依赖的路径推进。这不仅符合这些经济体自身的利益,也有助于其他经济体避免出现不必要的动荡。好消息是,货币政策正常化表明发达经济体的增长相对强劲。然而,货币紧缩——加上贸易紧张局势加剧——导致一些新兴经济体面对的外部压力增大。 第二,团队合作是取胜之策。我们知道,贸易壁垒的增加最终有损于所有各方。因此,所有国家都必须避免实施新的贸易壁垒,并取消最近的关税措施。我们拥有一个改善全球贸易体系的独特机会。国际货币基金组织的研究表明,从长远看,开放服务贸易可能使二十国集团的GDP增加3500亿美元,增幅约为0.5%。同时,各国的一致行动可以加强本国经济,减少全球失衡并促进全球经济。一些例子:德国可以增加投资和鼓励劳动力参与,从而利用其财政空间加强增长潜力;美国可以通过降低财政赤字来促进经济增长;中国可以通过推进经济再平衡来做出贡献。 第三,加速推进。当前的进展过于缓慢。如何能加快这一进程?多数二十国集团发达经济体可放宽产品市场限制,刺激创新和降低价格,并从中受益。例如,在日本和许多欧元区国家,放宽获得专业服务的渠道尤为重要。在加拿大、德国和英国等国,增加对研究的支持至关重要。多数二十国集团新兴国家也将从产品和劳动力市场改革中获益。在巴西、中国、印度和俄罗斯等国,取消扭曲性税收将有所助益。几乎在所有经济体,提高女性的劳动力参与率不仅能促进经济增长,还有助于提高社会的公平性和包容度。 这些只是应当采取的部分措施。据我们估计,这些措施如果得以联合实施,将使二十国集团的GDP提高4%。二十国集团首次领导人峰会召开以来的十年里,二十国集团付出的努力对于促进全球经济复苏起到了至关重要的作用。但现在,阴云再度浮现在天边。应对这一挑战意味着,需要实施在国家层面和国际层面都合理的政策,同时也意味着要加强全球金融安全网,由一个能力完备、资源充足的国际货币基金组织主导,以确保我们能够有效帮助各国防范并应对未来的危机。
解析
本文主要讲述应对未来经济发展挑战的策略,属于经贸类话题。文章主要从三个方面提出建议,应对未来经济发展的挑战。第一是加强财政政策与货币政策方面的防御;第二是各国应合作共贏,抵制贸易保护主义;第三是加快政策实施速度。本文结构清晰,长度适中,但是信息密度较大,同时也包含了不少经贸类专业术语,难度属于中等偏上。备考时应多积累经贸类的词汇与百科知识。
(1)第一段中,This includes the United States, once the recent fiscal stimulus ends一句虽短,但是需要结合前文适当增译并调整语序。Fiscal stimulus可详为“财政刺激”。once the recent fiscal stimulus ends这一部分在翻译时需前置,才更符合汉语的表达习惯。因此,本句可译为“在美国,最近的财政刺激一旦结束,也会出现这种情况”。
(2)第二段中,Policymakers can start by creating more fiscal room for maneuver, so that they have the resources needed to increase support to the economy should growth weaken significantly一句包含了省略if并将should提前的虚拟语气句,若在听辨时理解了句子结构则不难翻译。should growth weaken significantly 需调整语序,置于so that之前翻译,符合中文的表达习惯。因此,全句可译为“政策制定者首先可以创造更多的财政回旋空间,以便在经济增长明显减弱时,拥有必要的资源来加强对经济的支持”。
(3)第二段中,In terms of monetary policy, the ongoing process of normalization of interest rates in many advanced economies should continue to follow a gradual, well-communicated, and data-dependent path,此句较长,同时出现了几个并列的形容词,可根据中文四字格句式的特点翻译为“循序渐进、有效沟通、数据依赖”,增加译文文采。normalization of interest rates译为“利率正常化”。
(4)第三段中,IMF research suggests that liberalizing trade in services could add about 1/2 percent, or $350 billion, to G20 GDP in the long run为本段翻译的难点,既需要翻译数字,又需要适当调整语序。数字翻译时既需要注意数字的准确性,又要保证计量单位的转换无误。根据笔记,时间状语in the long run需调整语序,置于IMF research suggests后。add about 1/2 percent表示“增幅为0.5%”。因此,全可译为“国际货币基金组织的研究表明,从长远看,开放服务贸易可能使二十国集团的GDP增加3500亿美元,增幅约为0.5%”。
(5)第四段信息密度适中,无长难句。需注意的是句子Economies such as Brazil, China, India, and Russia would gain by moving away from distortionary taxes,包含常见的国家以及经济术语,平时要注意积累。distortionary taxes译为“扭曲性税收”。在经济学中,税收会对经济造成扭曲,会影响人们的选择。这本来是税收应该避免的,但是政策的制定者也常常主动利用这种扭曲,通过开征新税,调节税率等手段,去实现某种政策。备考时需要多关注经贸类专业术语,减少口译时的词汇障碍。
(6)第五段中,句子It also means strengthening the global financial safety net, with a well-equipped and well-resourced IMF at its center, to ensure that we can play our role in helping countries prevent and deal with future crises为翻译的难点,包含三个短句,信息密度较大。口译时需要适当改变词性与增译,让受众听起来符合中文表达。with a well-equipped and well-resourced IMF at its center为独立主格句,可译为完整的句子,即“以一个能力完备、资源充足的国际货币基金组织为主导”。
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