2. 外语
  3. To me, the most interesting and immediate question is not whether the United States will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but whether

To me, the most interesting and immediate question is not whether the United States will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but whether

admin2011-02-09  34
问题     To me, the most interesting and immediate question is not whether the United States will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but whether other parties are prepared to work toward that goal. The next few months will determine whether other patties choose an agreement on their terms without the United States, or whether they prefer an agreement that may require some compromise of ideological positions, but will in fact be effective and will include the United States. //
    I believe the EU and others, for a number of reasons, will conclude that its interests and those of the environment lie in crafting an agreement that the United States can support. The United States accounts for approximately 25% of global industrial emissions. Any agreement that excludes the United States will not control global warming. In addition, European businesses may wonder why they are asked to assume significant new climate change obligations if U.S. competitors are not going to be subject to roughly the same rules. //
    I might note two additional factors relevant here: first, the idea of emissions trading is growing in popularity in capitals on the continent, and also in London and Brussels. Second, economists are warning that few countries, with the notable exception of the United Kingdom, are on track to meet their Kyoto commitments. I am hopeful that these forces will allow governments at COP-6 to mold the Protocol into a sensible, practical shape, one which the United States can support. //
    Let me say a word more about developing country’s participation because this is an area where the United States is frequently misunderstood. The undeniable fact is that climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. To be sure, industrialization in the North contributed enormously to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Developed countries, including the Untied States, must take significant steps immediately. //
    Acting alone, however, developed countries cannot stabilize global greenhouse gas concentrations. From a scientific standpoint, meaningful participation by key developing countries is a necessity. Several large developing countries will soon become the world’s leading emitters. Developing countries already produce 44% of global fossil fuel emissions. In addition, developing countries are responsible for a disproportionate share of deforestation and other land-use practices that have raised carbon concentrations. // Per capita energy intensity ratios in some, not all, developing countries continue to rise briskly, despite the existence of clean technologies that were not invented when developed countries were industrialized. In the immediate future, 80% of new electric power generation projects will occur in developing countries. All of us want those projects to use the latest cutting edge technologies. //
    I mention these facts not to bicker about past or future responsibility, for that detracts from our common cause of halting global warming, but to highlight the need for all countries to be a part of the solution. //
    In a very real sense, developing countries have the most to gain from an effective Protocol in which all the industrialized countries participate. For developing countries, unfortunately, have the least capacity to adapt to climate change. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at acceptable levels and the harder these countries will be hit. //
    The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change points the way: each nation should take national and international steps commensurate with its capacity to contribute to the global solution based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". //
    Many developing countries have taken significant unilateral action already. China, for example, has sought to conserve energy and reduce emissions growth while simultaneously raising living standards dramatically. Without price reforms and energy efficiency gains, China’s emissions would be more than 50% higher than they are now. //
    We recognize, moreover, that some developing countries may lack the capacity to assume and implement legally binding emissions targets at this time. For these countries, other types of action would be appropriate at present. All developing countries should explore opportunities under the Clean Development Mechanism, adopt sound national policies on energy and land use, and pursue other climate-friendly measures under the Framework Convention. //
    The negotiating histories of both the Framework Convention and Kyoto Protocol demonstrate general agreement on the need to mitigate climate change while allowing for continued economic growth. The Untied States believes this formula remains the key to securing developing country action. Developing countries are finding in the Kyoto Protocol avenues to pursue their development and environmental goals simultaneously. There is a growing recognition of the potential of the Clean Development Mechanism to direct advanced technology and major capital flows to the developing world. //
    (Excerpts from "Under Secretary of State Loy on Kyoto Protocol" made by former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Frank E. Loy to American Bar Association Conference)
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答案 对我来说，最关心和最迫切的问题不是美国能否批准《京都议定书》，而是其他参与国是否会朝这个目标努力。在接下来的几个月里，谈判各方将会决定是按照自己的条款制定没有美国参加的协议，还是选择在意识形态上做出一些让步，制定一份实际上更加有效、并有关国参加的协议。// 我相信欧盟和其他国家出于几方面的考虑，会最终认识到制定一份能获得美国支持的协议是最符合环境利益和他们自身利益的。美国的工业排放量约占全球工业排放总量的25%。任何没有美国参加的协议都不会对控制全球变暖起到作用。此外，欧洲企业会问为什么要求他们承担新的有关气候变化的义务，而美国的竞争者却用不着遵守类似的规定。// 我在这儿不妨指出另外两个相关的因素：首先，有关排放权交易的观点日益受到欧洲大陆各国的欢迎，在伦敦和布鲁塞尔也是如此。第二，经济学家警告说，除众所周知的英国之外，没有几个国家在努力兑现他们的京都承诺。上述这些因素会促使参与第六次缔约方大会的政府制定出明智、可行并能得到美国支持的协议，对此我充满希望。// 我想再谈谈发展中国家参与的问题，因为在这个领域里，大家对美国经常产生误解。不容否认的事实是气候变化是一个全球问题，需要在全球范围内加以解决。毫无疑问，北半球的工业化对温室气体量的增多负有很大责任。包括美国在内的发达国家应该立即采取措施。// 不过，发达国家孤军奋战并不能抑制全球温室气体的增多。从科学角度来看，主要发展中国家的真正参与是必要的。几个最大的发展中国家很快就会成为世界上最大的排放国。发展中国家化石燃料排放量已经占到全球排放量的44%。不仅如此，发展中国家还要对过度砍伐森林和其他引起碳浓度增加的土地使用行为负有责任。//尽管现在已经拥有了发达国家在工业化时还没有发明的清洁技术，一些发展中国家的人均能源消耗强度仍在持续快速增长。不远的将来，80%的新建发电项目会出现在发展中国家。我们所有人都希望这些项目将采用最新的尖端技术。// 我提到这些事实并不是想争辩过去或将来的责任问题，因为那样做会偏离我们抑制全球变暖的共同事业，我只是在强调所有国家共同参与解决这一问题是十分必要的。// 从真正意义上讲，最能让发展中国家从中获益的是一个全体工业化国家都参与的有效议定书。因为遗憾的是发展中国家适应气候变化的能力最弱。我们等待的时间越长，就越难将温室气体排放量稳定在能够接受的水平上，那么这些国家所受到的冲击也就会越大。// 1992年的联合国《气候变化框架公约》为我们指明了方向：每个国家都应当在国内和国际方面采取与其能力相称的措施，并在“共同但有区别的义务”原则基础上为寻求全球解决方案贡献力量。// 很多发展中国家已经单方面采取了重要的行动。譬如中国就在节约能源、减少废气排放的同时，大幅度提高了人民的生活水平。如果没有价格改革和能源的有效利用，中国的废气排放量会比现在多50%。// 此外，我们认识到有些发展中国家可能在目前还没有能力承担并执行具有法律约束力的排放目标。对这些国家来讲，采取其他措施可能在目前更为合适。所有发展中国家都应当在“清洁发展机制”下探索机会，制定行之有效的能源和土地利用政策，并根据《框架公约》采取其他环境友好型措施。// 《框架公约》和《京都议定书》的谈判历程表明了这样一种广泛的共识，即我们需要在实现经济持续增长的同时减缓气候变化。美国相信这一准则仍旧是促使发展中国家采取行动的关键。发展中国家正在《京都议定书》中找到同时获得发展和实现环境目标的途径。人们正日益认识到“清洁发展机制”在引入先进技术与大规模资金流向发展中国家的过程中所具有的潜力。// (节选自“美国副国务卿谈《京都议定书》”，前美国国务院负责全球事务的副国务卿弗兰克?洛伊在美国律师协会年会上的讲话)
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