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一个正在高速实现工业化和城市化的发展中大国,内部需求特别是消费需求持续不振,显然不是短期政策因素,而是反映了整体的经济和社会结构失衡。步入了工业化进程的廉价农村劳动力——我们称为农民工,创造了巨大的供给,却不能融入城市作为市民去消费,因此产生了巨大供需缺口
一个正在高速实现工业化和城市化的发展中大国,内部需求特别是消费需求持续不振,显然不是短期政策因素,而是反映了整体的经济和社会结构失衡。步入了工业化进程的廉价农村劳动力——我们称为农民工,创造了巨大的供给,却不能融入城市作为市民去消费,因此产生了巨大供需缺口
admin
2010-01-14
87
问题
一个正在高速实现工业化和城市化的发展中大国,内部需求特别是消费需求持续不振,显然不是短期政策因素,而是反映了整体的经济和社会结构失衡。步入了工业化进程的廉价农村劳动力——我们称为农民工,创造了巨大的供给,却不能融入城市作为市民去消费,因此产生了巨大供需缺口。中国今后30年的发展,在很大程度上取决于我们能否在过去30年成果的基础上,抓住经济社会发展的主线,逐步废除对进城农民的身份歧视,进行制度创新,从而启动另一个30年的经济高速增长和社会平衡发展。能否做到这一点,关键在于农民工市民制的机制设计和创新,这将同30年前的家庭土地承包制度一样,启动和激发链索式的制度变迁和社会演变,成为推动下一个30年经济社会发展的引擎。
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答案
As a main developing country in the course of rapid industrialization and urbanization, China’s domestic demand (esp. the consumption demand) is yet in constant depress. Obviously, the situation is not caused by its short-term policies, but it indeed reflects the imbalance of the economy and social structure as a whole. The cheap laborers (rural migrant laborers) have greatly involved in the industrialization and have created tremendous product supplies, but they cannot become consumers in urban areas. Thus, a great gap between supply and demand is created. So China’s development of next 30 years depends on whether we can, with the accomplishments of past 30 years, focus on the essence of the social economic development, and eliminate identity discrimination against rural migrant laborers step by step. We should also carry out policy innovation so as to start up another round of fast economic growth and balanced social development in next 30 years. The key to this lies in realizing the citizenship mechanism and policy innovation for those rural workers. The new policies will just be like the household contract responsibility system 30 years ago, initiate system reform and social changes in chain, and become the engine driving social economic development for the next 30 years.
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