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外语
Interpret the following passage from English into Chinese. You may take notes while you are listening. You will hear the passage
Interpret the following passage from English into Chinese. You may take notes while you are listening. You will hear the passage
admin
2019-10-14
20
问题
Interpret the following passage from English into Chinese. You may take notes while you are listening. You will hear the passage only once. Now, let’s begin.
下面你将听到一段关于大数据的讲话。
Cubs win the World Series. Donald Trump wins the White House. What do those two epochal events have in common? Both were considered highly unlikely. And both happened.
Many Americans therefore judge predictions, with more skepticism. They’ve learned an important, even comforting, lesson about the limits of polling and other measures: Big Data is not destiny.
Algorithms are formulas written by humans to take the guesswork out of what other human beings will do under certain circumstances. Survey responses to pollsters, consumer buying habits, internet site visits, etc. , can be plugged into computer models to suggest people’s future behavior. The understandable hope is always that if you start with knowable measurements and crunch them through well-constructed formulas, you’ll produce a reliable preview of what will happen.
Not necessarily.
Computers don’t read minds. Nor do pollsters. People don’t always say what they think. Or they change their minds. People can be convinced and unconvinced. Some people say one thing but do another. You will never write a program to take into account all those nuances and many others.
Big Data can lead to Big Mistakes. Google Flu Trends, for instance, sought to use data from internet searches to estimate when influenza season would peak and at what level. But it drastically overestimated peak flu levels in the 2012-13 season. That failure "doesn’t erase the value of big data, " wrote David Lazer of Northeastern University and Ryan Kennedy of the University of Houston in Wired magazine. "What it does do is highlighting a number of problematic practices in its use-what we like to call ’big data hubris. ’"
Should we toss out data and rely only on experience, or on anecdotes, or on what we hear, no matter true or false, from people with whom we agree?
That would be a dangerous overreaction to the election flub. If people believe the data cannot be trusted, they may turn instead to "trusting anecdotes from friends, family and tribe, " political blogger Erick Erickson writes in The New York Times. "Policies will be based on what people think are good ideas, not what data show. This will potentially further segment an already divided nation, " he warns, aptly.
Reality is elastic. Every moment brings new possibilities. That’s what makes life intriguing.
选项
答案
芝加哥小熊队问鼎世界职业棒球大赛。唐纳德-特朗普入主白宫。这两个划时代的事件的共同之处是什么?是之前都不被看好,但结果却都成真了。 因此,很多美国人对预测这件事产生了更多的怀疑。他们欣慰地得出一个重要的经验:民意调查和测验有局限,大数据不能代表命运。 算法是由人类编写的、用来猜测其他人在特定条件下会如何行动的公式。民意调查、消费习惯、网站访问量等等的调查结果都可以输入电脑模型来预测人们未来的行为。只要有了可知的测量数据,再通过精心搭建的模型,我们就能可靠地预测未来,人们产生这样的期望也是情有可原的。 可惜事实未必如此。 电脑无法读懂意识,民意调查专家也做不到。人们有时会心口不一,或者时常改变心意,或为他人所左右,还有些人说一套做一套。没有人能写出一个程序,去考量到所有的细微差别。 大数据可能带来大错误。比如,谷歌流感趋势预测,是通过网络搜索数据去预测流感季达到峰值的时间和水平。但它严重高估了2012至2013流感强度的峰值。这次失误虽然“不会抹灭大数据的价值”,东北大学的大卫-雷泽和休斯敦大学的瑞恩-肯尼迪在《连线》杂志中写道, “但它确实凸显了大数据的一些现实问题——我们通常称之为‘大数据的狂妄’”。 那么我们是否应该摒弃数据,仅依赖经验、轶事,或者道听途说,也不管是真的还是假的? 若果真如此过激,则会相当危险。政治博主埃里克-埃里克森在《纽约时报》中这样写道,如果人们不信任数据,那么他们就会转而“信任那些从朋友、家人和社区获得的小道消息”,他警告说“政策制定的基础将是人们看好的观点,而不是数据显示出来的结果。这可能会加剧国家的分裂”。 现实是灵动的,每一刻都会带来全新的可能。这才是生活的趣味。
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