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  3. Broken BRICs: Why the Rest Stopped Rising By Ruchir Sharma November / December

Broken BRICs: Why the Rest Stopped Rising By Ruchir Sharma November / December

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问题                                                  Broken BRICs: Why the Rest Stopped Rising
                                                 By Ruchir Sharma November / December 2012
    Over the past several years, the most talked-about trend in the global economy has been the so-called rise of the rest, which saw the economies of many developing countries swiftly converging with those of their more developed peers. The primary engines behind this phenomenon were the four major emerging-market countries, known as the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The world was witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shift, the argument went, in which the major players in the developing world were catching up to or even surpassing their counterparts in the developed world.
    These forecasts typically took the developing world’ s high growth rates from the middle of the last decade and extended them straight into the future, juxtaposing them against predicted sluggish growth in the United States and other advanced industrial countries. Such exercises supposedly proved that, for example, China was on the verge of overtaking the United States as the world’ s largest economy—a point that Americans clearly took to heart, as over 50 percent of them, according to a Gallup poll conducted this year, said they think that China is already the world’s "leading" economy, even though the U.S. economy is still more than twice as large (and with a per capita income seven times as high).
    As with previous straight-line projections of economic trends, however—such as forecasts in the 1980s that Japan would soon be number one economically—later returns are throwing cold water on the extravagant predictions. With the world economy heading for its worst year since 2009, Chinese growth is slowing sharply, from double digits down to seven percent to even less. And the rest of the BRICs are tumbling, too: since 2008, Brazil’s annual growth has dropped from 4.5 percent to two percent; Russia’s, from seven percent to 3.5 percent; and India’s, from nine percent to six percent.
    None of this should be surprising, because it is hard to sustain rapid growth for more than a decade. The unusual circumstances of the last decade made it look easy: coming of the crisis-ridden 1990s and fueled by a global flood of easy money, the emerging markets took of in a mass upward swing that made virtually every economy a winner. By 2007, when only three countries in the world suffered negative growth, recessions had all but disappeared from the international scene. But now, there is a lot less foreign money flowing into emerging markets. The global economy is returning to its normal state of churn, with many laggards and just a few winners rising in unexpected places. The implications of this shift are striking, because economic momentum is power, and thus the flow of money to rising stars will reshape the global balance of power.
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答案 破碎的金砖四国：为何他者不再(继续)崛起 作者：鲁奇尔．夏尔马 2012年11月／12月 过去几年，全球经济中提到最多的趋势是所谓的其他国家的崛起，这见证了许多发展中同家的经济迅速接近发达国家水平。此现象背后最重要的动力来自四个主要的新兴市场同家，即“金砖四同”：巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国，世界正见证着这千载难逢的转变，持这种观点的人认为，主要的发展中国家正在赶超主要的发达国家一。 这些预测通常假设2005年左右发展中国家的高增长率会延续至未来，与此同时有人预言美国和其他先进工业国增长疲缓。据说有例子可以证明，中国快要夺走美国作为最大经济体的宝座——美国人记住了这一点。据今年一次盖普洛民意调查显示．超过一半的美国人认为中国已经是世界上“最大”的经济体，即使美国经济规模比前者大了两倍多(且美国人均收入是中国的七倍)。 过去对经济趋势的预测是直线上升(注：指的是上文中将当前增长率直接用于预测未来发展的预测)，例如20世纪80年代有人预测日本不久将成为世界第一大经济体．但是后来的结果给那些夸张的预测浇了一盆冷水。在世界经济处于自2009年以来的最坏的一个年头．中国经济增长突然放缓，增长率从两位数降到7％，甚至更少。剩下的金砖三国也不好过：自2008年以来，巴西年增长从4．5％降到2％，俄罗斯从7％跌至2％，印度则从9％落到6％。 这并不奇怪，因为经济很难在十多年内一直保持高速增长。过去十年不寻常的市场环境使经济增长变得十分容易：新兴市场从危机四伏的20世纪90年代脱身，又受到全球巨额热钱的刺激。它们瞬间集体高速增长，使每个经济体看上去都是赢家。到2007年．全球只有三个国家经济负增长．萧条几乎从国际视野消失。而今，流人新兴市场的外汇大大减少。全球经济被打回原形．大多数国家经济放缓，只有在一些意想不到的地方出现了几个赢家。这种转变的影响是巨大的，因为经济动力意味着权力，所以一些崛起的新兴国家的资金流向将会重塑全球权力平衡的格局。
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