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Listen to the following passage. Write in English a short summary of around 150-200 words of what you have heard. You will hear
Listen to the following passage. Write in English a short summary of around 150-200 words of what you have heard. You will hear
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2011-01-08
51
问题
Listen to the following passage. Write in English a short summary of around 150-200 words of what you have heard. You will hear the passage only once and then you will have 25 minutes to finish your summary. This part of the test carries 20 points. You may need to scribble a few notes to write your summary.
Most economic forecasts are wrong. And governments usually fail when they try to fine-tune the economics in the short term. That’s not surprising, argues Paul Ormerod in his book Butterfly Economics, because few underlying economic theories and models come anywhere near real life. Ormerod, an economist and director of the London Think Tank, has dumped on the blinkered world of mainstream economic thought before, in his book, The Death of Economics. This time, he argues that his colleagues with the dismal science should instead view "society as a living creature, which adapts and learns."
Ormerod calls his approach butterfly economics, in part to stress its link to biology. But it also reflects a principle advanced by chaos theorists that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings can set off a tornado in another part of the globe. Modem economics, he says, are "complex systems which hover on the brink of chaos." But Ormerod could just as easily have titled it Ant Model Economics, because his theories derive from entomologists’ experiments with ants in the mid-1980s. Two equal-sized food sources were set equidistant from an ant’s nest. How did the colony divide itself between the sources? As it turned out, the proportion of ants visiting one site or the other changed constantly. Sometimes changes were small. Other times, shifts were dramatic and swift. None was predictable. Why? Basically, a foraging ant has three choices: returning to the food source it successfully visited before; being persuaded by other ants, via a scent, to try the other pile; or turning to the humans. People can stick with a previous decision, change their minds on their own accord, or be persuaded by the actions of others.
That people are often influenced by others, the author says, goes a long way toward explaining why some inferior technologies squeeze out superior ones, like VHS videocassette recorders upstaging Betamax VCRS, or why traders continue to buy currencies they know to be overvalued. Popularity breeds popularity. This may all seem obvious. But for economists, it’s a revelation. Standard economic theories nearly always assume that people’s behavior and tastes never change -- which helps explain why most theories can’t pass a reality check. In real life, chaos -- in the form of human decision making -- reigns.
The ant model shows that accurate short-term predictions of ant behavior are impossible. But in long term, there is a pattern to the ants’ randomness. And, Ormerod says, so it is with economics, too. Short-term governmental forecasts usually miss the mark. And the abilities of politicians to alter the cycles of business are" largely illusory," he insists. But in the long term, there is some structure. The business cycle, with all its constant ebbing and flowing, may be uncontrollable and defiant of near-term forecasts. But despite its fluctuations, capitalist economies have grown slowly and steadily over time. That means, he says, that policymakers should adopt a less-is-more approach. "The role of governments should be confined to trying to mitigate the consequences of a cycle rather than trying to eliminate it."
Ormerod’s effort to persuade orthodox economists to take human behavior into account more often -- regardless of its unpredictability -- is a worthy goal. Still, it’s a bit dispiriting that his foraging ants, like Pavlvov’s salivating dogs, depict our behavior so accurately.
选项
答案
Most economic forecasts are wrong. And governments usually fail when they try to fine-tune the economics in the short term. That’s not surprising, argues Paul Ormerod in his book Butterfly Economics, because few underlying economic theories and models come anywhere near real life. Ormerod, an economist and director of the London Think Tank, has dumped on the blinkered world of mainstream economic thought before, in his book, The Death of Economics. This time, he argues that his colleagues with the dismal science should instead view "society as a living creature, which adapts and learns." Ormerod calls Ns approach butterfly economics, in part to stress its link to biology. But it also reflects a principle advanced by chaos theorists that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings can set off a tornado in another part of the globe. Modem economics, he says, are "complex systems which hover on the brink of chaos." But Ormerod could just as easily have titled it Ant Model Economics, because his theories derive from entomologists’ experiments with ants in the mid-1980s. Two equal-sized food sources were set equidistant from an ant’s nest. How did the colony divide itself between the sources? As it turned out, the proportion of ants visiting one site or the other changed constantly. Sometimes changes were small. Other times, shifts were dramatic and swift. None was predictable. Why? Basically, a foraging ant has three choices: returning to the food source it successfully visited before; being persuaded by other ants, via a scent, to try the other pile; or turning to the humans. People can stick with a previous decision, change their minds on their own accord, or be persuaded by the actions of others. That people are often influenced by others, the author says, goes a long way toward explaining why some inferior technologies squeeze out superior ones, like VHS videocassette recorders upstaging Betamax VCRS, or why traders continue to buy currencies they know to be overvalued. Popularity b reeds popularity. This may all seem obvious. But for economists, it’s a revelation. Standard economic theories nearly always assume that people’s behavior and tastes never change -- which helps explain why most theories can’t pass a reality check. In real life, chaos -- in the form of human decision-making -- reigns. The ant model shows that accurate short-term predictions of ant behavior are impossible. But in long term, there is a pattern to the ants’ randomness. And, Ormerod says, so it is with economics, too. Short-term governmental forecasts usually miss the mark. And the abilities of politicians to alter the cycles of business are "largely illusory," he insists. But in the long term, there is some structure. The business cycle, with all its constant ebbing and flowing, may be uncontrollable and defiant of near-term forecasts. But despite its fluctuations, capitalist economies have grown slowly and steadily over time. That means, he says, that policymakers should adopt a less-is-more approach. "The role of governments should be confined to trying to mitigate the consequences of a cycle rather than trying to eliminate it." Ormerod’s effort to persuade orthodox economists to take human behavior into account more often -- regardless of its unpredictability -- is a worthy goal. Still, it’s a bit dispiriting that his foraging ants, like Pavlvov’s salivating dogs, depict our behavior so accurately.
解析
一、主干内容表达部分:
这部分内容为文章的主干内容,是综述的主要信息。
1.Most economic forecasts are wrong,because few underlying economic theories and models come anywhere near real life.
[分析] 本句是文章首段的主要内容,提出本文讨论的核心问题,因此是全文框架性内容。
2.This time,he argues...should instead view“society as a living creature,which adapts and learns.”Ormerod calls his approach butterfly economics,in part to stress its link to biology.
[分析] 本句提出本文讨论的主要理论,并点明具要点,因此是全文框架性内容。
3.Popularity breeds popularity. This may all seem obvious. But for economists,it’s a revelation.
[分析] 本句是在具体阐释本文提出的核心理论后得出的结论,也是文章重要观点,因此是全文框架性内容。
4.Short-term governmental forecasts usually miss the mark. But in the long term,there is some structure.That means that policymakers should adopt a less-is-more approach.
[分析] 本句说明所讨论的理论对人类社会生活的指导意义,是本文讨论的重要内容,因此为全文框架性内容。
5.Ormerod’s effort to persuade orthodox economists to take human behavior into account more often— regardless of its unpredictability— is a worthy goal.
[分析] 本句位于全文最后一段,对全文讨论的重要理论作了概括性的评价,是文章必不可少的内容,因此是框架性内容。
二、支持性细节表达部分
这部分内容为主要点的重要支持性细节,是综述的次要点信息。
1.Governments usually fail when they try to fine-tune the economics in the short term.
[分析] 本句就文章主题进一步发挥,明确了文章讨论的重点,因此是重要的支持性细节。
2.But it also reflects a principle advanced by chaos theorists that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings can set off a tornado in another part of the globe.
[分析] 本句是对本文涉及的核心理论的进一步补充说明,因此是重要的支持性细节。
3.His theories derive from entomologists’ experiments with ants in the mid-1980s.
[分析] 本句具体说明了蝴蝶理论的来源,将其与下面重点讨论的蚂蚁行为联系在一起,起到承上启下的作用,因此是重要的支持性细节。
4.People can stick with a previous decision,change their minds on their own accord,or be persuaded by the actions of others.
[分析] 本句将蚂蚁行为运用到人类社会,说明了本文理论对人类社会的具体的实践意义,使全文观点更具有说服力,因此是重要的支持性细节。
5.That people are often influenced by others,the authors says,goes a long way toward explaining why some inferior technologies squeeze out superior ones.
[分析] 本句进一步解释说明人类社会的经济行为,以例证形式支持了文章主要观点,因此是重要的支持性细节。
6.Standard economic theories nearly always assume that people’s behavior and tastes never change.In real life,chaos—in the form of human decision-making—reigns.
[分析] 本句运用核心理论具体解释了一般的经济理论与人类社会的关系,与文章开始提出的问题相呼应,因此是重要的支持性细节。
7.The ant model shows that accurate short-term predictions of ant behavior are impossible.But in long term,there is a pattern to the ants’ randomness. And,Ormerod says,so it is with economics, too.
[分析] 本句进一步扩展蚂蚁模式,为文章重要观点的提出奠定理论基础,因此是重要的支持性细节。
8.The business cycle,with all its constant ebbing and flowing,may be uncontrollable and defiant of near-term forecasts.But despite its fluctuations,capitalist economies have grown slowly and steadily over time.
[分析] 本句介绍了经济发展的一般规律,进一步证明了核心理论的价值,因此是重要的支持性细节。
9.The role of governments should be confined to trying to mitigate the consequences of a cycle rather than trying to eliminate it.
[分析] 本句是对文章提出政府少介入社会经济活动的进一步解释和说明,补充完善了全文主要观点,因此是重要的支持性细节。
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